Favorites stage 4 Renewi Tour 2025 | Sprint far from certain in tricky finale after Geraardsbergen

Friday's stage was the real queen stage of the Renewi Tour. But that does not mean that the fourth stage will be easy. There are 1,500 meters of elevation gain between Riemst and Bilzen-Hoeselt: that's not a lot, but it's rarely flat in Belgian Limburg. It starts tough, with the Côte Sur les Coteaux, the Gousbeemdstraat, and the Keiberg: short climbs that succeed each other in quick succession.

In Reimst (no, not the starting place Riemst, but Reimst), there is an intermediate sprint, after which the Slingerberg is tackled. Not long after that, the same route is repeated. The route is difficult to follow on the map: there are short and long loops in the Limburg countryside. So there is a lot of riding on the same roads.

The Keiberg, for example, is home to the golden kilometer, about 60 kilometers from the finish line. In Bilzen-Hoeselt, just over 40 kilometers from the finish, the line is crossed for the penultimate time. After that, the riders have to cross the Slibngerberg and the Gousbeemdstraat once more before arriving at an uphill section. Technically, the final is not tricky.

Times
Start: 11:34 AM local time (05:34 AM EDT)
Finish: 4 PM local time (10:00 AM EDT)

It will be a great day of racing in Limburg. Friday was also nice, and today will be much the same: around 20 degrees Celsius, with a gentle southeasterly wind. That will most likely not make any difference.

Phew, who should we pick for a day like this? Well, there is a clear pattern for this day. Last year, the finish was also in Bilzen, and several climbs were included in the route that have been included again this year. Jonathan Milan won the previous year, so a sprint is a possibility. In that case, we'll put down stage winners Olav Kooij (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step) as our picks.

But they're not the only guys who can do it. Arnaud De Lie showed he has great legs on the way to Geraardsbergen. Lotto's new classification leader can survive the climbs and is extremely fast. The same goes for Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), Pavel Bittner (Picnic PostNL), Milan Fretin (Cofidis), and Marijn van den Berg (EF Education - EasyPost). Sprinters such as Dylan Groenwegen (Jayco-AlUla) and Arvid de Kleijn (Tudor) prefer a flatter course, but who knows.

But a sprint is no guarantee. In 2023, Matej Mohoric was the best in Bilzen from a group of 13 riders. So it could well be that the classic riders who showed themselves on Friday will also take a chance on Saturday. Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) was already very active, and his teammate Tibor Del Grosso was also looking good. That team will undoubtedly want to prevent a sprint.

The same may apply to Tim Wellens. The Belgian champion from UAE Team Emirates - XRG is eagerly seeking his fifth overall victory in the Renewi Tour and may be able to do so in the penultimate stage. But attackers such as Stan Dewulf (Decathlon AG2R), Fred Wright (Bahrain Victorious), and Alberto Bettiol (XDS-Astana) may also have big plans for a day like this. However, with the difficult final stage in Leuven, they may decide to save their energy.  

Top favorites: Olav Kooij (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step)
Outsiders: Arnaud De Lie (Lotto), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) and Pavel Bittner (Picnic PostNL)
Long shots: Tim Wellens (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), Milan Fretin (Cofidis) Marijn van den Berg (EF Education - EasyPost), Fred Wright, Matej Mohoric (both Bahrain Victorious), Stan Dewulf (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Tibor Del Grosso (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Alberto Bettiol (XDS-Astana)