Favorites stage 4 Tirreno-Adriatico 2026 | Van der Poel and Van Aert will need to be very good to have a chance

Stage 4 of Tirreno-Adriatico takes the riders from Tagliacozzo to Martinsicuro. That means the peloton heads from inland Italy — where Wednesday still ended in a sprint — toward the Adriatic coast. The first 90 kilometers run north, and after the second climb of the day the route turns right and continues in a north-easterly direction.

The opening half of the stage is defined by two longer climbs. The Ovindoli and Valico delle Capannelle, averaging 4.9 and 4.5 percent respectively, are not especially steep, but together they still add up to nearly 25 kilometers of climbing. That makes them ideal terrain for a strong breakaway to build a useful advantage, while also offering the better climbing sprinters a chance to wear down the more pure fast men before the finish.

After the second climb, the riders are exactly halfway through the day and begin a long descent toward Castelnuovo Vomano. There, another effort awaits: a 7.6-kilometre climb to Castellalto. Shortly after that comes an uphill intermediate sprint in Mosciano Sant’Angelo, where bonus seconds will also be available.

The key marker of the finale comes at 13 kilometers from the line, when the road ramps up toward Tortoreto for 1.5 kilometers at an average gradient of 8.4 percent. From there, 11.5 kilometers remain, first with a short descent and then a flat run-in to the line in Martinsicuro. The final 3 kilometers are straight along the coast, which should make positioning relatively simple once the peloton has regrouped.

Start: 10:25 AM local time
Finish: around 3:45 PM local time

It is not expected to be brilliantly sunny on Thursday, but conditions at the start in Tagliacozzo should at least stay dry. Dry weather is also forecast for the finish in Martinsicuro, where temperatures are expected to be a mild 14 degrees Celsius. Wind should not be a factor either, even near the coast, with forecasts effectively calling for calm conditions.

This is one of those stages that could still go in several directions, because in 2026 a normal sprinter is no longer automatically ruled out by a few climbs at 4 or 5 percent. The punchy rise in the finale may create some separation, but will riders such as Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech) and Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step) really let this one slip away?

Alongside those three — all of whom should be capable of handling this parcours on a good day — there are several more climbing sprinters who are likely to have circled this stage. Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM), Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Intermarché) and Pavel Bittner (Picnic PostNL) all fit that profile. You can safely add Danny van Poppel (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Corbin Strong (Israel - Premier Tech) and Fernando Gaviria (Caja Rural) to that list as well.

The picture seems clear enough: riders without a real sprint will need to be exceptionally strong if they want to get away and stay away in the finale. Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech) is obviously one rider capable of that, although he may also decide to sacrifice his own chance for Philipsen in a reduced sprint. Wout van Aert, meanwhile, would normally enjoy a bit more freedom at Visma | Lease a Bike, but the big question remains just how good he really is at this point.

Riders such as Andrea Vendrame (Jayco AlUla), Paul Lapeira (Decathlon) and perhaps even Alpecin joker Tibor del Grosso will surely be interested in a late move on the final climb. The aggressive INEOS Grenadiers duo of Filippo Ganna and Magnus Sheffield also belong in that category. Then again, they still have a sprint card in Sam Welsford, provided the Australian can stay near the front over the climbs.

Looking for other outsiders for a surprise win? Roger Adrià of Movistar could be one. Julian Alaphilippe is never shy about launching an attack, and at Astana, Alberto Bettiol will surely have to show himself at some point as well. And if it does come down to a sprint from a reduced group, Luca Mozzato (Tudor) and Madis Mikhels (EF Education-EasyPost) should not be discounted either.

Top favorites: Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) and Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step)
Outsiders: Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM), Jasper Philipsen, Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Intermarché)
Long shots: Danny van Poppel (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Pavel Bittner (Picnic PostNL), Paul Lapeira (Decathlon), Corbin Strong (Israel - Premier Tech), Andrea Vendrame (Jayco AlUla), Tibor del Grosso (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Filippo Ganna, Magnus Sheffield (INEOS Grenadiers), Madis Mikhels (EF Education-EasyPost), Luca Mozzato (Tudor), Roger Adrià (Movistar) and Alberto Bettiol (Astana).

Bram van der Ploeg (X: @BvdPloegg | e-mail: [email protected])