Favorites stage 4 UAE Tour 2026 | Unusual hilly Emirates stage could go any way

In the Emirates, we usually expect two kinds of stages: either a billiard-table flat sprint day, or a punishing uphill finish. But this year the organisers have opted for a surprisingly hilly stage — a rarity in the desert. And while riders often head from Fujairah towards Jebel Jais, that climb won’t feature at all in 2026.

Instead, the race introduced a new uphill finish that was used on stage 3. With that addition, Fujairah becomes the backdrop for a fresh stage design, starting and finishing in the capital of the emirate of the same name. And the climbing starts immediately from the gun. After two fairly tricky rises, the riders reach an intermediate sprint — placed right at the start of a loop.

Once that loop is completed, the peloton returns to Fujairah along the same roads as on the way out: what was a climb becomes a descent, and vice versa. In total there are around 2,300 metres of climbing packed into 182 kilometres, though the final 25 kilometres trend mostly downhill. A day for attackers — or for the sprinters who can handle a bit of climbing?

Times
Start: 10 AM Dutch time
Finish: around 2 PM. Dutch time

The forecast is about as good as it gets. Around 28°C/82°F in the Emirates, with the wind expected to become less of a factor as the day goes on. No rain, no clouds — a dream day for racing.

This stage really could go in any direction. The UAE Tour’s usual sprint festival offers fewer obvious chances for the fast men this year, but that might be exactly why teams will want to make this one count — after Thursday, there are “only” two opportunities left. That means we should focus on the quick men with durability. Jonathan Milan (Lidl–Trek) should, in theory, be able to handle a day like this — but the big question is whether he’s fully fit after his crash earlier in the race.

If Milan isn’t at 100%, plenty of other options come into play: Ethan Vernon (NSN Cycling), for example, or Cees Bol (Decathlon–CMA CGM), who came so close to victory in the opening stage. Matteo Malucelli (XDS Astana) and Juan Sebastián Molano (UAE Team Emirates–XRG) also fit the profile of sprinters with climbing legs.

The more “pure” sprinters will be tested, but in 2026 they should still be capable of surviving a hilly day like this — especially with a mostly downhill run-in. Soudal Quick-Step will back Alberto Dainese, Uno-X Mobility can play the Erlend Blikra card, and riders like Casper van Uden (Picnic PostNL), Madis Mihkels (EF Education–EasyPost), Gerben Thijssen (Alpecin–Premier Tech) and Sam Welsford (INEOS Grenadiers) will all try to hang on and sprint if it comes back together.

Still, the absence of several top sprinters — and the fact that Milan is clearly still dealing with the aftermath of his fall — also opens the door to a successful breakaway. For that scenario, you need riders with big engines. Emil Herzog (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe) was already active in Valencia, for instance. INEOS could even consider Josh Tarling as an aggressive option if Welsford can’t make it to the finish with the front group.

Baptiste Veistroffer (Lotto–Intermarché) has already won from a break this season and tends to try his luck whenever the door is open. Others to keep an eye on include Stefan Bissegger (EF Education–EasyPost), Anders Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility), Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla), Matthew Dinham (Picnic PostNL) and Pablo Castrillo (Movistar). And you can bet on natural attackers like Lorenzo Milesi (Movistar) and Florian Sénéchal (Alpecin–Premier Tech) being keen as well.

More names worth mentioning: Byron Munton (Modern Adventure Pro Cycling), who showed excellent legs in the AlUla Tour. Rémi Cavagna (Groupama–FDJ United) also looks in strong form, as shown by his second place in the time trial. And could we see Dutch riders Jardi Christiaan van der Lee (EF Education–EasyPost) and Mathijs Paasschens (Bahrain Victorious) on the move?

Top favorite: Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla)
Outsiders: Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Florian Sénéchal (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Pablo Castrillo (Movistar), Josh Tarling (INEOS Grenadiers), Emil Herzog (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Rémi Cavagna (Groupama-FDJ United)
Long shots: Baptiste Veistroffer (Lotto-Intermarché), Jardi Christiaan van der Lee (EF Education - EasyPost), Mathijs Paasschens (Bahrain Victorious), Byron Munton (Modern Adventure Pro Cycling), Anders Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility), Cees Bol (Decathlon CMA CGM), Ethan Vernon (NSN) and Matthew Dinham (Picnic PostNL)