Favorites stage 6 Tour de France 2023 | Jumbo-Visma, Vingegaard and the potential Cauterets dilemma

We will start shortly after lunchtime in Tarbes, from where the first 25 kilometers mostly consist of flat roads. This is good news for the sprinters in this Tour de France, as they won't risk being dropped during this phase. The Cote de Capvern-les-Bains is the first climbing challenge of the day.

This 5.6-kilometer long ascent is considered a warm-up, but with an average gradient of 4.8 percent, it's a hill where the breakaway of the day could really get going. After this initial obstacle, we'll be riding on a plateau for a stretch of about 25 kilometers, which also holds the intermediate sprint in Sarrancolin. This sprint is scheduled after fifty kilometers of racing.

Next up is the Col d'Aspin, the first real mountain pass to conquer. It is twelve kilometers long with an average gradient of 6.5 percent and has been included in the Tour de France route numerous times. The Aspin is a fairly consistent climb, with the second half maintaining a constant gradient between seven and eight percent. Once we reach the top, we are already halfway through this relatively short stage of less than 145 kilometers.

After a twelve-kilometer descent, we immediately face the next challenge, which happens to be the toughest climb of the day: the Col du Tourmalet, a mountain well-known to every cycling enthusiast. The Souvenir Jacques Goddet stretch is seventeen kilometers long and has an average gradient of 7.4 percent. It will undoubtedly separate the contenders from the pretenders.

From the Tourmalet, we descend via Bareges to Pierrefite-Nestalas, where we begin the final climb to Cauterets. This climb is 16.2 kilometers long with an average gradient of 5.3 percent, but that's not the whole story. The first eleven kilometers can be described as a false flat, following which we enter the range of double digit gradients for another two kilometers.

In the last three kilometers, the gradient is 6.5 percent, so all in all, what awaits us in this French mountain range will be far from easy on the riders. The second part of the Pyrenees in this Tour is bound to be as captivating as ever!

Times
Start: 1:25 p.m.
Finish: approximately 5:08 p.m.

It seems highly likely that the riders will encounter rain on Thursday. In the finish town of Cauterets, light rain is expected throughout the afternoon according to various weather stations, while the wind will primarily be head-on during the toughest half of this stage. Temperatures will hover around 20 degrees Celsius.

Similar to Wednesday, there are essentially two scenarios that can unfold: breakaway or general classification contenders. In this regard, Jumbo-Visma finds itself in a dilemma: on one hand, it suits them well if BORA-hansgrohe and Jai Hindley defend the jersey in the upcoming (flat) stages, but on the other hand, they have the opportunity to deal another blow to their major competitor, Tadej Pogacar.

Regardless, Jonas Vingegaard has shown that we shouldn't harbor too many illusions about who the strongest climber in this Tour de France currently is. After preliminary work brilliantly performed by his super-domestique Sepp Kuss, Vingegaard needed just one well-timed acceleration to shake off Pogacar and the rest of the pack.

Hindley and Pogacar become the dark horse favorites in this scenario, although it would be favorable for Vingegaard if he can keep the Australian in yellow. In that case, the BORA-hansgrohe climber would have to finish approximately forty seconds behind Vingegaard, while Pogacar would need to come up with other strategies to challenge his main rival.

Other contenders such as Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) and Simon Yates (Jayco-AlUla) have shown good form so far, but for them to have a solid chance at victory, a Hindley-like scenario would need to unfold. The same applies to Guilio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Ben O'Connor (AG2R Citroën), Romain Bardet (DSM-Firmenich) and Adam Yates, Pogacar's trusted lieutenant. It seems unlikely that they will be given significant freedom at this stage.

Therefore, when looking for stage victory contenders, it may be better to consider riders who are one step below this level, such as Michael Woods, Dylan Teuns (Israel-Premier Tech), Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ), Ruben Guerreiro (Movistar) and INEOS duo Daniel Felipe Martínez/Tom Pidcock. They, along with top climber Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën), may have the opportunity to try their luck in an early breakaway. Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) may also hope for such a role, considering his team leader Mikel Landa has already lost a significant amount of time.

Pure climbers such as Steff Cras (TotalEnergies), Rui Costa (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), David de la Cruz (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost) will likely take their chances on Thursday, but whether they have the legs to triumph here is uncertain. It's a real toss-up.

Top favorites: Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) and Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën)
Outsiders: Dylan Teuns (Israel-Premier Tech), Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ), Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe) and Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates)
Longshots: Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers), Ruben Guerreiro (Movistar), Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) and Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious)