Favorites stage 7 Tour de France 2025 | Where Van der Poel once struck, Pogacar is now lurking

As has often been said, punchers are treated to an unforgettable first week of the Tour de France. After opportunities on days 2, 4, and 6, day 7 brings the Mûr de Bretagne, which has been a phenomenon in the Tour de France since 2021. With 2 kilometers at 6.9 percent but maximum gradients of up to 15 percent in the first kilometer, it was only punchers who won in the past. Before van der Poel, the winners were Dan Martin (2018) and Alexis Vuillermoz (2015) in the Tour.

Just like the last two times the climb was included in the route, we're doing it twice in a challenging finale. The Côte du Village de Mûr-de-Bretagne (1.6 kilometers at 4.1 percent) is the appetizer after 177 kilometers. And in the hours before that? A breakaway group will try to build up as big a lead as possible so that they still have something left in the final with three climbs to go. With a north-easterly wind force 3 and narrow roads, that will be difficult enough with a nervous peloton.

The stage totals 197 kilometers, so the first 170 could be a long haul. From Saint-Malo, the riders will face no obstacles, and the intermediate sprint in Plédran is only after 140 kilometers of cycling. However, the finale makes up for everything, with two ascents of Mûr de Bretagne and an incredibly fast and tricky local lap to reach the finish. The final climb is one for the explosive riders, with the road leveling out towards the top.

Times
Start: 12:10 PM (06:10 AM EDT)
Finish: 4:39 PM (10:39 AM EDT)

The weather is expected to be fantastic on Friday, with temperatures of 24 degrees Celsius at the start in Saint-Malo and only a moderate wind from the northeast. In the afternoon, the wind will increase to force 3, but it remains to be seen whether that will be strong enough to hit the riders hard enough in the back or on the side. The temperature will rise to 27 to 29 degrees towards the finish. So, put on some sunscreen and drink plenty of fluids!

Mathieu van der Poel deserves to be mentioned first as the last winner at Mûr de Bretagne. The Dutchman from Alpecin-Deceuninck won a stage on day 2, wore yellow, finished second again on day 4, and managed to regain the yellow jersey by one second in stage 6 on Thursday. Does he still have something left in the tank on the climb he used to win four years ago? The climb suits him, but he will have to be in top form.

Perhaps in a nerve-wracking finale, we will see more of the real punchers, with Tadej Pogacar naturally the top favorite. The world champion from UAE Team Emirates-XRG is cut out for this job and will be eager to grab some bonus seconds on Jonas Vingegaard, who also impressed in the explosive finals at Visma | Lease a Bike but still fell just short of his Slovenian rival.

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Among the real punchers, there are still a lot of men hoping for success, in many cases, perhaps the same men we picked for stage 6. Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels) is third in the standings with amazing legs, Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) and Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL) were able to keep up with the best on previous punch days, and Lidl-Trek even has two aces up its sleeve in Mattias Skjelmose and Thibau Nys.

In the top ten of the rankings are Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), and Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe duo Primoz Roglic and Florian Lipowitz, who are still serious outsiders, but so far, none are names that belong among the most explosive riders. In the second row on day 4, for example, men such as Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Aurélien Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) showcased their skills.

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The Mûr de Bretagne, especially twice in a row, may also reveal other names that we haven't really seen yet. Think of Neilson Powless at EF Education-EasyPost, Lenny Martinez at Bahrain Victorious, Louis Barré at Intermarché-Wanty, Axel Laurance at INEOS Grenadiers, and, of course, Julian Alaphilippe and Marc Hirschi (Tudor), who are in top form for such finishes.

Not all riders will want a sprint finish uphill, so we're also listing some candidates for an attack in the style of van der Poel. Ben Healy (EF) is always up for a surprise attack, and why shouldn't Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla), Simone Velasco (XDS Astana), Jenno Berckmoes (Lotto), Joe Blackmore (Israel-Premier Tech), and Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) be able to surprise us?

Top favorite: Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
Outsiders: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike), Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL), João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) and Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels)

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])