Favorites stage 9 Vuelta a España 2025 | Will the top riders seize the opportunity to gain time before the rest day?

After a sprint day in Zaragoza, the climbing returns on the final stage before the first rest day. Stage 9 of the Vuelta a España has all the hallmarks of a classic Vuelta stage: a relatively flat run-in followed by a moderate summit finish. The big question: Will the GC contenders test each other, or will the breakaway be given its chance? IDLProCycling.com takes a closer look.

Starting in Alfaro, the stage will head mostly westward, taking in a series of rolling hills the riders will have to face. While there’s plenty of up and down in the first half, there are no categorized climbs. However, the first 30 kilometers will be crucial for shaping the day’s breakaway. A break that could very well go the distance on this kind of terrain. The middle of the stage levels out, with just a few bumps along the way.

With 30 kilometers to go, there’s a bonus sprint in Santo Domingo de la Calzada, after which the route turns south toward the foot of the final climb. The ascent to the Valdezcaray ski station is long, but not overly steep: 13.3 kilometers in total, with the first 4 kilometers being the toughest at an average of 7.5%. From there, the gradient eases steadily, and the final kilometers are relatively gentle. Those looking to make a real difference will need to attack early on the climb, or play it smart and time their move in the final few kilometers.

If history teaches us anything, we have to go back to 2012. It’s been 13 years since the Vuelta last tackled the climb to Valdezcaray. That year, Simon Clarke (Orica GreenEdge) took the win by outsmarting Tony Martin (Omega Pharma–Quick-Step). The peloton arrived around 20 riders strong, so we shouldn’t expect massive time gaps. That said, Alejandro Valverde did lose almost a minute that day. If you have a bad day, you can crack completely.  

Times
Start: 12:37 PM (local time) | 06.37 AM (ET)
Finish: around 5:15 PM (local time) | 11.15 AM (ET)

A classic race day in Spain, with classic Iberian weather. Expect dry conditions and temperatures around 28°C. Wind will mostly be a headwind throughout the day, shifting to a light crosswind in the finale, but not nearly strong enough to create echelons.

All signs point to another breakaway-friendly stage. Still, it’s not impossible that someone from the GC group ends up taking the win, especially a good climber with a punchy finish. We’ve already seen what Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl–Trek), and Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) can do on similar terrain in stage 2.

David Gaudu (Groupama–FDJ) finished third that day, but after losing time on Friday, he’s more likely to attack from the break. If he’s recovered well, his GC position gives him freedom, and he’s more than capable of chasing a second stage win. Jay Vine and Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates–XRG) have both already won a stage, but perhaps it’s time for Marc Soler or Felix Großschartner to get their shot within the team.

However, there are plenty of teams without a clear GC leader, who will be aiming squarely at the breakaway. XDS–Astana has multiple riders capable of going deep: Harold Martin Lopez, Lorenzo Fortunato, Sergio Higuita, Wout Poels, and Harold Tejada are all potential threats. Movistar also brings several options in Pablo Castrillo, Javier Romo, and Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda. Cofidis could look to Jesús Herrada or Emanuel Buchmann, while Picnic–PostNL may get active with Kevin Vermaerke or Gijs Leemreize.

Among the Pro-continental team ranks, all eyes will be on the Spanish wildcard squads. Burgos–Burpellet BH may put their hopes in Sergio Chumil, and Caja Rural–Seguros RGA could gamble on Abel Balderstone. Could we see Marco Frigo again? The Israel–Premier Tech rider finished second on Stage 7, and this climb might suit him even better. Also worth keeping an eye on: Bruno Armirail and Léo Bisiaux (Decathlon AG2R), as well as Victor Langellotti (INEOS Grenadiers).

Top favorites: Pablo Castrillo (Movistar) and Marc Soler (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)
Outsiders: Marco Frigo (Israel - Premier Tech), Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda (Movistar), Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-trek), Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) and David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ)
Long shots: Harold Martin Lopez, Lorenzo Fortunato, Harold Tejada (all XDS-Astana), Jesús Herrada (Cofidis), Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Victor Langellotti (INEOS Grenadiers), Kevin Vermaerke (Picnic PostNL) and Sergio Chumil (Burgos Burpellet BH)