Is this a Giro for the breakaway riders? And what do past Visma vs Pogačar controversies have to do with it?

The Giro d'Italia gets under way in Nessebar on Friday with one outright favourite flying a Dutch flag: Jonas Vingegaard. The Dane's plans — he is also targeting the Tour de France — are already being seen as crucial to how the race will unfold. And riders like Wout Poels and Frank van den Broek could well be among those to benefit from that, along with many others.

"I count fifteen opportunities for myself," said Lennert Van Eetvelt at the team presentation. "We see at least ten for someone like Giulio Ciccone," said Gregory Rast, Lidl-Trek's sports director. "For us, only one thing matters: the overall win. And let's start by getting to Italy in one piece — that's already challenging enough with a start in a foreign country," was the message from Marc Reef, sports director at Visma | Lease a Bike.

No specific numbers came from Dutch attackers Poels and Van den Broek. At the start of his 27th (!) Grand Tour, Poels is experienced enough to know that "day by day" is the best approach — and Van den Broek still needs to get better acquainted with the Garibaldi, as the Giro's official route book is called. "I've been resting a lot lately, so I'll need to find my rhythm first."

What matters in any case: on paper, this race does not look like it will turn into the familiar long-range shooting match between UAE Team Emirates-XRG and Visma | Lease a Bike that has defined recent years. At the Emirates-based squad, original leader João Almeida is missing, and the other men — Adam Yates, Jan Christen, Jhonatan Narváez and Jay Vine — are deliberately keeping their ambitions in check.

Within the peloton, eyes beyond Vingegaard fall primarily on Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe's Giulio Pellizzari and Jai Hindley — but for now they are downplaying expectations to a top three. The same applies to Netcompany INEOS' Thymen Arensman and Egan Bernal, while most other teams are spreading their bets across multiple riders.

Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM), Derek Gee-West (Lidl-Trek), Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) and Michael Storer (Tudor) are not in a position to carry the weight of the race either, which means it will fall primarily on the shoulders of Visma | Lease a Bike. And the general expectation is that they will be generous in doing so — partly with an eye on July.

Why? In their best years — 2022 and 2023 — the Dutch team shot themselves somewhat in the foot by chasing down several breakaways in Grand Tours, and with the battle against Pogačar in July in mind, other teams are hoping some goodwill can be won here. The so-called divide-and-conquer strategy.

Pogačar's dominance — most recently illustrated by his four stage wins at the Tour de Romandie — is starting to grate, just as Visma | Lease a Bike's dominance in winning all three Grand Tours in 2023 did at the time. The complaints about race motorbikes — publicly aired by among others Valentin Paret-Peintre, Louis Vervaeke and Luke Plapp — are just the tip of the iceberg.

In Bulgaria, the race will probably still belong to the sprinters and puncheurs — but from the moment the peloton transfers to Italy, many attackers are hoping their moment will come. "I think Vingegaard will be a winner too, but I don't think it'll be as dominant as Pogačar was at the last two Tour de Frances I rode," says Van den Broek, one of the Picnic PostNL Raisin attackers.

"But he'll want to win on the Blockhaus too, or on other climbs," he expects. Poels agrees. "I can say I want to win on the Blockhaus, but climbers with GC ambitions tend to be up there on those stages," the experienced Dutchman nods. "I just have to pick my days. I have the Garibaldi, but I don't look at it. I mostly use VeloViewer anyway — you can see all the critical points at a glance."

For Vingegaard, the critical issue is above all getting through the race in one piece. His team sees their leader in excellent physical and mental condition, which means that — barring mishaps, and perhaps after the Blockhaus — a gap could quickly open up that is comfortable enough to cruise through the rest of the race on autopilot, leaving the proverbial crumbs for the rest of the peloton. And winning a little goodwill ahead of the Pogačar showdown in July, should the opportunity arise.