Is Van der Poel about to pull off what nobody else has managed since 2000? History suggests it's far from guaranteed

Following his victories in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, Mathieu van der Poel has his sights set on clinching the Amstel Gold Race trophy this Sunday. However, he is up against a starkly different lineup in the rolling hills of Dutch Limburg, compared to the flat cobbles. The question is, what challenges and opportunities lie ahead, and how do past achievements in both the Amstel and Roubaix weigh in?

Only three cyclists have ever won both Paris-Roubaix and the Amstel Gold Race in the same season: Eddy Merckx in 1973, Bernard Hinault in 1981, and Jan Raas in 1982. Interestingly, during Merckx and Hinault's time, the Amstel was scheduled before Roubaix, and the Limburg course itself has also seen its fair share of changes since then. Yet, Van der Poel is on the verge of setting a new precedent by winning Flanders, Roubaix, and the Amstel all in a single year.

However, the aftermath of Paris-Roubaix, known as the Hell of the North, tends to have a lasting effect. The grueling cobbles of Northern France are physically very demanding, with cyclists having to absorb significant impact on their back and hands. Remarkably, Van der Poel's hands, despite being gloveless, have emerged unscathed, and any impact on his previously sensitive back seems minimal.

The mental aspect of this racing sequence shouldn't be overlooked either. Both Tim Wellens and Michael Matthews highlighted the mental stamina required, starting from the Flèche Brabançonne. "On paper, it might seem like just a few race days, but in reality, races like the Tour of Flanders or Roubaix feel like three or four days each because of their intensity and the need for constant focus," Wellens pointed out, explaining his decision to skip the Ardennes races. Matthews, who is competing in races all the way through to Liège, echoed these sentiments, underscoring the challenge of maintaining peak concentration from Sanremo through to Liège, a feat Van der Poel is familiar with.

Van der Poel already participated in both races in the past - and missed his shot

What do the past few years teach us then? Not that much, partly due to the coronavirus. Van der Poel himself skipped the Amstel Gold Race last year after winning Paris-Roubaix, as did all the other top ten finishers in the French race. Gianni Vermeersch, eleventh in Roubaix last year, did compete in both: he finished fourteenth. Sjoerd Bax, thirteenth in the Hell, then helped Tadej Pogacar to victory.

In 2022, the winner of Roubaix did appear in the Amstel, but that year, the two races swapped weeks on the calendar due to the French presidential elections. Van Baarle, winner in the Hell of the North, ended up 22nd, while his teammate Michal Kwiatkowski, winner of the Gold Race, finished 77th in South Limburg. Van der Poel also doubled up that year: he was fourth in the Amstel and ninth in Roubaix.

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2021 and 2020 can be omitted from our list, as Paris-Roubaix had to be rescheduled due to the coronavirus. In 2021, the Hell of the North was moved to October, with Sonny Colbrelli (72nd in the Amstel in April) as the winner. Wout van Aert, that year's Gold Race winner, ended up seventh on the cycling track. In 2020, Roubaix was even completely cancelled due to the pandemic.

Sagan, Gilbert and Van Avermaet made good attempts at the Roubaix-Amstel combo

Paris-Roubaix was known as the race for the sturdy time trialists, the veterans, but in the final years of the 2010's, we also saw some punchers win in the Northern French classic. Philippe Gilbert (2019), Peter Sagan (2018) and Greg Van Avermaet (2017) all rode the Amstel Gold Race after winning Paris-Roubaix, making them perhaps the best comparison material. Disclaimer: they had significantly more race days on their calendars than Van der Poel at that time of the year.

Gilbert was in a position to win the Gold Race for the fifth time in 2019, but ended up thirtieth. Van der Poel, that year's spectacular winner of the Dutch classic, did not ride Paris-Roubaix that year. In 2018, Sagan made the best attempt in the Gold Race: after winning the Hell of the North, he finished fourth in Limburg. Van Avermaet was twelfth in 2017. In those two years, the Amstel was won by Michael Valgren and Gilbert, but they did not ride Paris-Roubaix the week before. That goes a long way towards indicating the difficulty level of winning both races.

Riders like Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara also consistently skipped the Amstel after winning Roubaix, knowing their spring season was over. The last rider to win the Dutch classic after riding Roubaix just a week earlier was Erik Zabel. The swift German finished third in Roubaix in 2000, 24 years ago, and then went on to win the Amstel. Will Van der Poel crush this series down next Sunday?