Knetemann says Van der Poel must race smarter: “I would try to ride on the safe side”

The announcement that Evenepoel would start came as quite a shock. But does that really change the race? “I don’t think Pogačar’s tactics change if Evenepoel hadn’t been on the start list,” Knetemann analysed. “He knows he has to start early. I think he sees Van der Poel as his biggest rival, and he has to make him tired and empty him out. He does that by racing aggressively from a long way out.”

So how can Van der Poel withstand the Slovenian storm? “I would try to ride a bit on the safe side. I think this is exactly what Pogačar hopes for: that they get away together early, because that allows him to chip away at Van der Poel’s tank. You do that less quickly with Pogačar. He knows: ‘This is how I can break him, we need to start the Oude Kwaremont already exhausted.’ We saw that last year as well.”

In the previous edition, Van der Poel was able to respond to the attacks for a long time, until the final passage on the Oude Kwaremont. That was where he had to let the world champion go. If the two top favourites get out in front together, it could become a fascinating tactical battle. “Then it is up to Van der Poel to do less work in that kind of two-man break, because he has to save energy. But he is not going to completely stop riding, because that’s just not Van der Poel.”

In his seven appearances at Flanders’ Finest, Van der Poel has never finished lower than fourth. Pogačar has the same statistic, with two victories and a fourth place on his debut. Van der Poel can become the outright record holder with a fourth Tour of Flanders win. “It’s not as if he still has to win it, as though he has something to lose. Of course it’s not nice if he gets dropped, I believe that immediately. But it can also be a spark. He doesn’t often get the chance to measure himself against others like this.”

But Knetemann has also seen an extremely strong Wout van Aert this spring. He has not managed to win yet, but he never let go of his Dutch rival’s wheel in In Flanders Fields, and in Dwars door Vlaanderen he came up just 100 metres short of a superb victory. There, he was by far the strongest rider whenever the road tilted uphill. So can he finally win the Tour of Flanders?

“I think I’d be speechless if he pulls it off,” said Knetemann. “And don’t forget, he was fourth last year. Then there was that kind of prestige sprint between Van der Poel and Van Aert, which Van der Poel really wanted to win and did win. Don’t forget that Van Aert actually rode a very strong Tour of Flanders in the shadows last year, after a spring that was not as good as the one he has now.”

Pogačar has ridden two races this year, and won them both. After a gala performance in Strade Bianche, where he rode solo for 80 kilometres, he won Milan-Sanremo for the first time two weeks later. That means Paris-Roubaix is now the only Monument he still has left to win. He could also become a joint record holder on Sunday if he wins in Flanders again.

But according to Knetemann, that is not a factor at all for the Slovenian. “He’s not thinking about that. The reason he is such a great rider is that he is not occupied with lists, he is not occupied with winning: he is occupied with racing. That intrinsic motivation.”