'Pogačar isn't a better climber than Vingegaard'; Valverde predicts a thrilling showdown at the Tour de France

The 2026 Tour de France has the potential to offer an epic battle for the yellow jersey. Given the results, Tadej Pogačar seems to be the clear favorite to win the overall title, but not everyone seems to agree. Alejandro Valverde, for example, doesn’t rank the Slovenian world champion above Jonas Vingegaard in the climbing stakes. And the Spaniard knows a thing or two about climbing.

Pogačar was dominant this year in virtually every sense of the word. For example, he recently left the competition more than six minutes behind in the Tour de Suisse, which featured only five stages, including one true mountain stage. Those were unprecedented time gaps, and earlier in the year he also won the Tour de Romandie, the Tour of Flanders, and Strade Bianche, among others, with commanding ease.

Vingegaard, for his part, won Paris-Nice, the Tour of Catalonia, and the Giro d'Italia. It wasn't quite as dominant or spectacular as Pogačar's performance, but we can still say that the Dane was largely untroubled in Italy. That gives Valverde, and us, plenty of hope for an exciting Tour de France.

Valverde holds onto that hope and knows where the difference can be made. “The time trials are crucial, because ultimately, Vingegaard isn’t a worse climber than Pogačar, and Pogačar isn’t a better climber than Vingegaard,” the Movistar team director explained in an interview with Mundo Deportivo.

"I think they'll be very evenly matched in the mountains, and it's in the time trials that we may not have seen either Pogačar or Vingegaard at their best," said Valverde, who also doesn't predict any major differences in the time trials. "In the Giro d'Italia, we saw Vingegaard ride a number of good time trials, but none that were outstanding, and Pogačar ride a number of very good time trials, but he isn’t significantly better than the Dane."

Because, as the former world champion puts it: “Ultimately, Pogačar is far superior to the rest of the peloton, with the exception of Vingegaard. If Jonas is in better form, he can already put Pogačar in trouble, and I think we’re going to see a really great duel there.” The entire cycling world hopes that Valverde is right.

But how is Vingegaard going to beat his Slovenian rival? “I don’t know if attacking him personally is the best approach… maybe he should look for a team strategy. They should harass him as a team and try to isolate him at some point, and see what happens in that situation.”

Valverde is therefore hesitant to make a definitive prediction for the final podium. “I’m certain about the top two—I just don’t know in what order; I think it’ll be Pogačar and Vingegaard. And I don’t dare predict who will take third place.” Paul Seixas seems to be a strong contender for that third spot, though there are other top-notch riders in the mix, such as Isaac Del Toro, Florian Lipowitz, and Juan Ayuso.