Pogacar no longer the top favorite? "The only man who can theoretically become World Champion," counters Traksel

The time trial was not an indication of Pogacar's form. “I think that if you want to be at your best in that time trial, you just need a lot more time trial kilometers, and you have to focus less on those Canadian races,” said Traksel in the podcast Kop over Kop. “In Canada, the travel and jet lag throw you off your rhythm. Apparently, you can't compete with that. Ilan Van Wilder also beat him, right?”

Pogacar fell just short of the bronze, which went to the surprising Van Wilder. Evenepoel even overtook the Slovenian. However, the former rider doesn't want to say that things would have turned out very differently if Pogacar had prepared more effectively. “Even if he had done everything right, it's not certain that he would have become world champion. He would have finished second.”

For the road race, Traksel expects a race that will break open very early on. “With that 100-kilometer climb from the start, it will break open faster than usual. Now, there are also riders like Evenepoel, but certainly Pogacar too, who prefer to come to the front in small groups with fewer teammates. All things considered, you can expect it to be a long final.”

Pogacar's moment of weakness means that many outsiders suddenly smell their chance in the hills of Rwanda. But Traksel is not convinced. "There will be a few teams that think: “Hey, because Pogacar was relegated to fourth place last Sunday...” But theoretically, he is the only man who could become world champion, even on a course like this." So, no big chance for Evenepoel.

As a rival of the defending champion, you have to play it smart, according to the Eurosport analyst. "One of the few options is to really dare to lose. Then you have to think: ‘Hey, Pidcock is going, I'm not going after him. Let Pogacar sort it out.’ That's the only real way. If he rides himself past, like in Zurich? Then you still have to close that gap with three or four riders."

Traksel sees several guys competing for the medals, but there is one who might benefit from a favorable race situation: Primoz Roglic. “He sees his chance to become world champion on the back of Pogacar. That's the trick they're trying to play there: the way Vingegaard won the Tour in 2023 is how they want to play it now.”

According to the Dutchman, the Netherlands will not play a significant role in the final. “Mollema and Poels have shown in the past that they can win on difficult terrain, but in most cases, that was quite some time ago. Thymen Arensman, who won those two stages in the Tour de France from the breakaway group, would not normally have won either.”