Sporza analyst weighs Van Aert and Van der Poel’s chances against the 65-kilo favourites: 'They’ll make it difficult'

Pogačar's absence will play a major role at the World Championships, not only in the final result, but also in the race itself. Pogačar and his Slovenian teammates left a strong mark on a grueling race in the last two editions; with more favorites in the mix, things could be different this time.

De Cauwer expects a fierce battle for the breakaway. It won't necessarily be the first leading group in the race, but perhaps the second or third. Many riders will sense an opportunity to attack and make it deep into the final stretch.

Will any key riders drop out? Are any major nations not fielding a team? The opening stages of the World Championships are going to be more interesting than ever, De Cauwer emphasises. He advises the major nations to send a strong rider right from the start. “If you have someone of that caliber in the lead group, everything is under control.”

De Cauwer won’t be surprised if even the biggest names with a knack for classics start making their move before the final stage has even begun. Isaac del Toro and Paul Seixas showed at the GP Montréal that climbers can really make a difference in the final stretch.

Add Remco Evenepoel to that list, along with strong teams from Italy and the USA. It’ll be up to riders like Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert to have already broken away by then. “Remco Evenepoel is Plan A for the Belgians, but so are Seixas and Del Toro,” says De Cauwer, referring to “climbers weighing around 65 kilos.”

According to the Belgian, Van Aert has gone with "Plan B," but it's really more like "Plan A2." “Van Aert, Van der Poel, and Mads Pedersen will have to make their move somewhere else; they can’t just wait it out. On the intermediate sprints, those heavier riders can break away. The Chemin de Polytechnique (780 meters at a 6 percent grade) is perfect for that.”

Although there’s a lot of focus on that one climb of nearly 2 kilometers in Montréal—which must be tackled twelve times—De Cauwer says the World Championship course is “great” for early attackers. The caveat, however, is: “The succession of small climbs will be tough—they’ll make it difficult.”

Because early attacks by the big names will make the race tougher and, without realising it, make the World Championships more selective. It’s possible to break away, but holding on until the finish will be a different story. “Plan A is to sprint among the top climbers, but other things could happen on this course.”

According to De Cauwer, Belgium “should still have confidence” in Evenepoel’s chances. In his view, Evenepoel is among the top favorites, along with Del Toro and Seixas. However, none of them are riders who, like Pogacar, will ride solo for the final two hours of the race.

And so De Cauwer also lists the dark horses: “It’s going to be a much more open race than you’d think.”