Ten Dam is relishing a Pogačar-less Vuelta finale and fancies one contender above the others: ‘That would be the dream scenario’

With Tadej Pogačar out of the race, we’re in for a completely different Vuelta a España over the next two weeks. Enric Mas (Movistar) took over the red jersey and immediately won Sunday’s grueling mountain stage, but the overall victory is still a long way off. Laurens ten Dam still sees many contenders in Spain and singles out Primoz Roglic in particular as perhaps the most dangerous challenger.

Pogačar took a hard fall during the eighth stage and had to withdraw from the Vuelta a España. The ninth stage was an extremely grueling mountain stage, and it was an immediate joy to watch. “In the Vuelta, you see them attacking each other,” Ten Dam says in his podcast Live Slow Ride Fast. “For the stage win, but also for the general classification. There’s something at stake again. If Pogačar had been there, he would have set the pace and left everyone in the dust.”

Where riders would normally be racing for second place, they suddenly have to take risks to make a difference. “It’s about finding the right moment. Maybe some riders are better at playing the game.” Gall was often the one who could stay with Pogačar the longest, so you kind of automatically end up in second place. But now he has to open up a gap on the others. That creates a different dynamic, because that speed demon, that dot, isn’t riding for it anymore.”

Interestingly, Ten Dam considered stage winner Mas to be the best poker player among the favorites. He demonstrated this during an attack by Richard Carapaz. “He rode away pretty aggressively. Mas started drinking from his water bottle very ostentatiously on the right side of the road, to show that he was playing poker. But he’s far from being a seasoned poker player. Still, he managed to exude a certain coolness.”

Mas currently holds a 1.18-minute lead over second-place Primoz Roglic. The four-time Vuelta champion took a hard fall in the run-up to the Grand Tour and started the race in Monaco with some doubts. But after a week, he’s in excellent shape, and that fifth title in Spain—which would make him the sole record holder—suddenly doesn’t seem so far out of reach. Ten Dam wholeheartedly wishes him well.

He does see a different Roglic compared to when he won his four Vueltas. “What he used to be so good at was winning those uphill sprints. He just doesn’t do that anymore, because I don’t think he’s good enough for it. He’s limiting the damage as best he can and is pushing his limits. But he’s also 36, and has to rely on his experience.” The Slovenian demonstrated that on the climb to Alto de Aitana, where he finished third. “He gave it his all there.”

What’s more, Roglic has an extra ace up his sleeve. Stage 18 features a 32-kilometer time trial. “Neither Gall nor Mas are good at that; he rode much better in the prologue.” Roglic finished 24th there, gaining about ten seconds on Mas and 25 seconds on Gall. On a less technical course, he might even be able to push harder. “There, he could suddenly reclaim the red leader’s jersey. You can also ride the Vuelta without winning a single stage, right?”

And so Ten Dam is looking forward to what lies ahead in the Vuelta. “If Roglic has a 30-second lead over Gall and Mas, they’ll have to make up that time in the final mountain stages. That would be the dream scenario,” he concludes.