The lonely life of the breakaway rider is much more futile under Pogačar's reign, and the data proves it
CyclingSaturday, 04 July 2026 at 08:32
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Follow us on GoogleThe start list of 184 riders includes a whole host of riders who are aiming for a stage win from the breakaway at the Tour de France. Ambitious statements are everywhere, but how realistic is it that breakaway riders will succeed in a Tour de France set to be dominated by Tadej Pogačar? IDL Pro Cycling took a look at the results from 2024 and 2025—Tours won by that same Tadej Pogacar.
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The Slovenian world champion has made it his mission to chase success with UAE Emirates-XRG, even if that doesn’t always win him friends in the peloton. Very occasionally, UAE would throw in the towel, but then it’s often other teams that ultimately ensured Pogacar and his teammates could smell the stage victory as they headed into the final stretch.
And in the end, it was once again the man who, in 2026, wins virtually everywhere he races. Of the 42 stages contested in the last two editions of the Tour de France, Pogacar won 23.8 percent of them. He was the strongest rider in no fewer than ten stages in 2026. In 2025, his UAE teammate Tim Wellens added another victory to the tally, on one of the rare days when a breakaway held on.
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Pogacar has won ten stages in the past two editions.
2024 Tour de France: Pogačar six times, no fewer than eight sprints
The 2024 Tour de France got off to a great start for the breakaway riders. Romain Bardet won on the opening day, in a much-discussed two-man attack with Picnic PostNL teammate Frank van den Broek. On the second day, he did it again. Although Pogacar had already attacked on the San Luca climb toward Bologna, Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels) won the stage from the breakaway group.
After that thrilling opening weekend in Italy, the breakaway group was a thing of the past. There were four sprints in the first week alone. Pogacar went on to win his first stage by attacking on the Col du Galibier and staying ahead, while Remco Evenepoel was the best for Soudal Quick-Step in an individual time trial.
In Stage 9, on the gravel roads of Troyes, a breakaway rider—Anthony Turgis—did win. Aside from three more sprints in the second week, the 2024 Tour came down to a battle between Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard. The Slovenian won two stages, while the Dane from Visma | Lease a Bike won one. In the third week, Pogi added three more stage wins in the year we finished in Nice.
Since there was also one sprint stage—bringing the total to eight bunch sprints—the remaining two stages of that Tour were breakaway stages. Richard Carapaz was the only breakaway rider in that Tour to win a mountain stage, while Victor Campenaerts struck in a transition stage.
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Campenaerts won the 2024 Tour de France as part of a breakaway.
2025 Tour de France: Pogačar less dominant against breakaway riders
In 2024, we ultimately saw five stage wins for the breakaway group, two of which came during the opening weekend. The team leaders didn’t let that happen in 2025, as the first two weeks saw a battle for stage wins between the punchers and the general classification contenders almost every day. In addition to two bunch sprints, including the opening day, which saw Jasper Philipsen claim the yellow jersey.
During the first week, Pogacar, Vingegaard, and Mathieu van der Poel, in particular, fought fierce battles. Pogacar and Van der Poel each won a stage, while Evenepoel once again excelled in the time trial. Pogacar also won at Mûr de Bretagne; stages 8 and 9 were sprints. The only other stage win came on Day 6, when Ben Healy won from the breakaway, followed by Simon Yates in a relatively easy mountain stage on Day 10.
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Jonas Abrahamsen won the next day in a punchy stage around Toulouse, and then it was up to Pogacar twice to effectively seal the Tour de France. That was ideal for the breakaway riders, because it gave Thymen Arensman the space he needed to attack uphill in Superbagneres and claim the stage victory. As mentioned, Wellens also claimed a stage win once, breaking away from a leading group heading toward Carcassonne.
It said it all about the tension in the general classification. Pogacar had built up such a lead that UAE considered stage wins less important, especially since Pogacar was clearly getting tired in the third week. As a result, Valentin Paret-Peintre won on Mont Ventoux, Ben O’Connor on Col de la Loze, and Arensman struck again in the mountains.
In the third week, there was only one sprint opportunity, limiting the number of bunch sprints in that Tour to five. Kaden Groves did win one of those typical third-week transition stages, before Wout van Aert proved too strong for Pogacar on Montmartre in Paris. Pogacar was spent, but he was still the overall winner.
The breakaway riders thus racked up a total of no fewer than ten stage wins. The hope for riders with breakaway ambitions will therefore be that Pogacar quickly decides the race again, as he did in 2025, or that he becomes physically exhausted once more or encounters some setback. If that doesn’t happen—if the Tour remains exciting or if Pogacar continues to struggle—then the 2026 Tour de France route might also suit him.
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Bram van der PloegEditor-in-chief
Bram van der Ploeg (35) is the proud founder of In de Leiderstrui, IDL Pro Cycling's parent site, launched in 2018. Finally, he could create stories about the sport he had followed since childhood. He is the editor-in-chief on paper, but prefers to be with his recorder next to a rider, a team bus, or in the mud at a cyclocross race. Every year, from February to the end of May, Bram follows the entire Italian cycling season, from the Trofeo Laigueglia to the Giro d'Italia, with the grand finale in October in Lombardy. During that time, he lives in Tuscany, where he has since come to call Italy his 'home'.
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Latest Comments
- - Quick one: why did Visma | Lease a Bike go so conservative in early 2024 after Troyes? Looked like they ceded control to UAE too easily.sprocketspiny04-07-2026
- - Slightly repetitive on the “continue below the photo” inserts—tighten the flow and add a chart on breakaway wins by terrain (flat/transition/mountain) for 2024–26?lindae04-07-2026
- - Philipsen in yellow on day one 2025 still feels surreal. More of that chaos, please.breakawaybikerd04-07-2026
- - If the 2026 route is as punchy as suggested, UAE will police the breaks again. The only hope is an early massive GC gap like 2025 to loosen the leash. Otherwise: crumbs for the baroudeurs.robert6504-07-2026
- - Grande articolo, ma manca un confronto con il 2022-2023 per capire il trend dei fughe nel lungo periodo.velodromevirtuoso104-07-2026
- - Pogačar fatigue in week 3 keeps coming up—was that backed by power/HR data, or just eye test? Wout beating him on Montmartre was epic, but Pogi already had yellow in the bag.jennifer1904-07-2026
- - Bardet x van den Broek in Italy was pure cinema. Still wild that Vauquelin nicked Stage 2 with Pogi firing on San Luca. Great call-out on Campenaerts too—textbook transition-stage timing.gearguru3304-07-2026
- - Can someone explain why bunch sprints dropped to five in 2025? Was it route design or the GC battle killing sprint setups?bikebuffj04-07-2026
- - Not sure about the “UAE throws in the towel” bit. Feels like other teams just blink first when the GC pace goes nuclear. Also, small stat nit:8% of 42 is 10 exactly—are we counting neutralised days or is that rounded?cadencekingm04-07-2026
- - Love the data-driven angle here. If Pogi’s taking 10 stages in 2026 and8% across 42 since 2024, break chances hinge on UAE’s appetite. If they ease off like late 2025, guys like Arensman/Carapaz/Wellens feast again.pedalpowe2904-07-2026
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