Tom Dumoulin fears for Van der Poel in Milan-Sanremo: ‘Pogacar has been working on this for months’

Dumoulin does believe Van der Poel is the only rider capable of threatening the Slovenian. “He’s the only one who has a chance of following Pogacar on the Cipressa,” he explained in the NOS Wielerpodcast. “I really hope he can do it, because then we could get another beautiful mano-a-mano battle, all the way from the Poggio to the finish, just like last year. But Pogacar apparently has been working on this for months.”

The memory of the 2025 defeat still seems fresh in the mind of the relentlessly ambitious superstar. “In training he’s gone up that Cipressa full gas so many times, and he has even improved his own best time. He’s so focused on this race, and with Del Toro he has a climber in form who can set a huge pace on the Cipressa. I think it will be very difficult for Van der Poel.”

But Dumoulin also knows one thing: Van der Poel is Van der Poel. “If anyone can do it, it’s Mathieu. And let’s not forget: the Cipressa isn’t an Alpine col.” So a repeat of last year’s scenario is certainly imaginable. “The Cipressa is not steep, so if you are on the wheel, you have a huge advantage. You need to produce far less power than the rider on the front. If he can stay tight on that wheel, then he definitely has a chance.”

Ahead of Sanremo, the common view is clear: Pogacar has to drop Van der Poel on either the Cipressa or the Poggio if he finally wants to win La Primavera. But the Slovenian is quick in a sprint too. So does he really have to get rid of Van der Poel before the line? Dumoulin thinks so. “Nine times out of ten, Mathieu will beat Pogacar in the sprint. He’s such a killer.”

So should we really focus only on Van der Poel and Pogacar? With names such as Paul Magnier, Matthew Brennan, Wout van Aert, Jasper Stuyven, Romain Grégoire and Tom Pidcock on the start list, there would normally be several more riders to consider. But if the 2025 scenario repeats itself, most of them are heading “to the slaughter” on the Cipressa, as Dumoulin puts it. Anticipating earlier is virtually impossible.

“You have no other option. You can’t attack on the Capi and get ahead of Pogacar’s move. You’re never going to stay away for long there, because the pace is already ferocious. You’d need to do your ultimate effort on the Capo Berta just to get 15 seconds, and then on the flat section towards the Cipressa you’d simply get brought back.”

So the outsiders have little choice but to wait and assess the gap on the Cipressa. “Then you have to hope you’re not too far behind at the top, that you have your very best legs, and maybe you can still come back because Pogacar and Van der Poel start looking at each other. Then perhaps the race can be rewritten on the Poggio. That’s what you have to hope for if you’re Wout van Aert, Jasper Stuyven, or any of those riders.”