Can anyone match Pogačar in the Swiss mountains? | Tour de Romandie stage 4 preview

Flat finishes have produced drama all week at the Tour de Romandie, as stages three and four have shown. The chances of that happening again on Saturday, the penultimate day in Switzerland, seem slim. The question is not so much who will win — but whether anyone can stop Tadej Pogačar from making it a hat-trick of stage wins.

Stage four rolls from Broc to Charmey on Saturday. At 149.6 kilometres it is relatively short, but 3,175 metres of climbing make it a genuine mountain stage. The organisers have billed it as the queen stage of this edition — four categorised climbs, all revolving around the Jaunpass.

The Jaunpass is the thread running through the entire day, tackled from multiple sides. The profile includes ascents of six kilometres at around 7.8% and 7.4 kilometres at 8.8%, meaning the race could be blown apart long before the finale.

The decisive passage looks likely to be the final climb: 8.1 kilometres at 8.3%. From the summit, it is still over 16 kilometres to the finish in Charmey — mostly downhill. Whoever opens a gap over the top will have the descent to work with.

Times
Start: 12:06 p.m.
Finish: around 4:06 p.m.

Conditions look reasonably favourable for a hard mountain stage. Temperatures in Broc will climb towards 21–22°C by Saturday afternoon, with heavy cloud cover but no clear sign of rain. Charmey is similar: around 20–22°C at the finish, predominantly overcast.

The clear favourite for the stage win is Pogačar. He has already won twice this week, leads the race comfortably, and this queen stage — with three ascents of the Jaunpass — is perfectly suited to his strengths. The final climb in particular is an ideal launching pad, both for the stage and for extending his lead in the general classification.

Behind him, Florian Lipowitz and Lenny Martinez are the most logical challengers. Both have the punch and climbing ability to stay in contact on the Jaunpass. Primož Roglič belongs in that conversation too on paper — but in this race he has looked more like a helper for Lipowitz than a genuine rival to Pogačar.

For an outside stage win, look to Jørgen Nordhagen. The Norwegian was able to follow the top three on stage one for Visma | Lease a Bike, and the question here is whether he can do more than just hang on.

Carlos Rodríguez, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Antonio Tiberi, Lorenzo Fortunato and Georg Steinhauser have all climbed well at this race. They could profit if the favourites neutralise each other — though that scenario looks unlikely. If Pogačar goes full gas on the final Jaunpass, he is the rider everyone else has to try to answer.

Top favorite: Tadej Pogacar (UAE Emirates-XRG)
Outsiders: Lenny Martinez (Bahrain-Victorious), Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Jørgen Nordhagen (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Long shots:Primoz Roglic, Finn Fisher-Black (both Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Sergio Higuita, Clément Champoussin, Lorenzo Fortunato (all Astana), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers),Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step), Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla), Pablo Castrillo (Movistar),