Whether he wants to or not, Tadej Pogacar must reset his cycling year and aim for a third Tour de France victory

Afterward, however, it is easy to joke around. But were appearances deceiving all along? Chances are there was no real duel at all for weeks. The psychological warfare, instigated by UAE-Team Emirates from day one, now seems, in retrospect, to be merely a stunt. Perhaps the relaxed attitude and playful taunts toward Jumbo-Visma in week one were a smokescreen for what was really going on. Maybe the Arabian team had already anticipated the doomsday scenario - that the anticipated duel between Pogacar and Vingegaard would be short-lived, as eventually happened on the monstrous Col de la Loze. Nonetheless, for an excruciatingly long time, the cycling world did indeed believe it was on the verge of witnessing the most beautiful duel ever.

Pogacar managed to largely overcome the challenge posed by Vingegaard on stage five. First, with his stage victory in Cauterets, and then by gaining seconds in the Massif Central, the Jura, and the Alps. Even in the time trial, despite his significant loss, the Slovenian remained resolute. However, upon closer observation, a different picture emerged. Signs of deterioration were cautiously visible, with his face turning grayer. Rumors of an inferior physical condition circulated due to a cold sore. His fall in the seventeenth stage likely didn't help matters. Ultimately, after seventeen stages, it became apparent that his energy reserves were completely depleted. The reason for his Tour defeat may be traced back to the classic spring races. Pogacar's Tour fate may have been sealed during Liege-Bastogne-Liège.

During that period, the seemingly race-addicted Pogacar found his desired playground in the spring classics. He triumphed in the Tour of Flanders, the Flèche Wallonne, and the Amstel Gold Race. Liège-Bastogne-Liège was also part of his intended menu, but there things went hopelessly wrong. Early in the race, the Slovenian prodigy fell in the Walloon April rain. Afterwards, he quickly appeared on social channels, smiling and cheerful, hoping that all would be well. Unfortunately, it soon became clear that his recovery was more difficult than expected. His impressive return to the Slovenian Championships, where he dominated his compatriots, overshadowed the fact that he was not one hundred percent fit to start the Tour.

It is a joy to watch the two-time Tour winner, the most spectacular rider in the peloton, perform throughout the year. He is capable of winning any race, be it a one-day or stage event. However, following his fall in Liège, questions arise about his program. How much risk should a Tour favorite take in the lead-up to the main goal of the year? Let's consider Vingegaard's preparation - he has been on the sidelines since the Tour of the Basque Country, went on altitude training, tested his form in the Dauphiné, and appeared as fresh as a daisy in Bilbao. Vingegaard meticulously crafted his freshness ahead of defending his Tour victory. Moreover, his basic condition seemed superior to that of his Slovenian opponent after the accident in Liège.

If Pogacar aims to win the Tour, he should seriously reconsider his preparation. Demonstrating the ability to peak in both April and July, as he has done in the past, is indeed possible. However, in recent years, the Slovenian has been surpassed by a top rider who no longer takes unnecessary risks, meticulously strategizing to gain an advantage in the inevitable duel that awaits. Risk avoidance now appears to be the key to success during the high-stakes season: the Tour. His Danish opponent has displayed remarkable consistency, showing no real moments of weakness in almost three weeks of cycling. Pogacar, due to his unfortunate fall, had to primarily focus on the exercise bike this year, a sharp contrast to Jumbo-Visma's sophisticated high altitude training.

For now, it is certain that Pogacar will not win the Tour for the second time in a row. To avoid a third disappointment, he will need to rethink his path to France. It is ultimately up to him to determine his approach to the cycling year. He captivates the cycling world by showcasing his top form in the spring. However, to reclaim the Tour title, he must take fewer risks in races that are less crucial than the French three-weekers. Perhaps this is not at all what Pogacar desires. It might not align with the character of the Slovenian, who enjoys somersaulting into the hotel pool on rest days and cycling with tourists. Nonetheless, those who observe Vingegaard's success would advise him to consider this change.

"I'm gone, I'm dead." For now, those were Tadej Pogacar's last significant words at the Tour. If the preparation is evenly matched, there is a good chance that Pogacar, with his explosiveness, character, and versatility, will come out on top in the critical moment and secure victory against Vingegaard. Then his talk will likely become more prominent once again.