Zonneveld sees Pogačar, not Van der Poel, making the most impact on stage 2: 'Don’t think it really matters'

With Jonas Vingegaard in yellow, the peloton are well underway on the second stage of the Tour de France. The team time trial already secured a victory for the Dane and Visma | Lease a Bike, but in the first road stage, everything could be different. Journalist Thijs Zonneveld expects a fired-up Tadej Pogacar. And what can we expect from Mathieu van der Poel after his team time trial?

Vingegaard was the first to cross the finish line in the team time trial and claimed the yellow jersey, seven seconds ahead of Filippo Ganna, but most importantly, twelve seconds ahead of Pogacar. And the rest of the general classification contenders lost even more time. “I had thought beforehand that the top teams would be within 15 seconds of each other, but the gaps are a bit wider,” Zonneveld analyzes in his podcast *In de Waaier*.

According to the former professional cyclist, Visma | Lease a Bike’s victory was primarily due to tactics. They had their act together better than UAE Team Emirates-XRG. “Visma had three riders over the penultimate climb, and UAE had two, so Del Toro basically had to put in a monster effort from halfway up the penultimate climb to the bottom of the final climb. But Pogacar was faster than Vingegaard on that final climb.”

Everyone on the Dutch team did their part, with the sprinters leading the way in the early stages and the climbers taking charge in the hilly final stretch. And for Zonneveld, Davide Piganzoli was perhaps the biggest surprise, even though he was called up to the Tour de France at the last minute. “If you can do this in a team time trial like this, even though he hasn’t done it often—I don’t think he’s ever done it for Visma—that’s really the X-factor.”

Mathieu van der Poel is in 11th place in the general classification, after he and Alpecin-Premier Tech had said they would aim for the yellow jersey in the second stage. However, he trails Vingegaard by 39 seconds, and according to Zonneveld, the bid for the yellow jersey is impossible. It already was, the analyst said: the stage around Montjuïc is far too tough for the Dutchman.

And so he doesn't know if it was the right choice to focus so much on that team time trial. “If you really make it your goal to ride the team time trial well so you can take the yellow jersey on Sunday, but you can’t take the yellow jersey at all on Sunday because it’s too tough, should you have taken the team time trial so seriously?”

The yellow jersey’s chances now seem to have faded completely. “As far as I’m concerned, that’s impossible. It already was, and after yesterday, it’s only gotten harder.” They’ve held their own quite well among teams with more established time trialists, but it’s really a very, very tough little climb they have to tackle, so it’s better suited for Pogacar, Pidcock, or Aranburu.”

Zonneveld sees Pogacar as the top favorite for the first road stage. It’s not just because of the course—which is tough, with enough elevation gain to make a difference—but the Dutchman sees the world champion as an unstoppable force. Even if it would be tactically better to hold back, the four-time Tour winner would never do that.

And the difference with Vingegaard? That’s not important right now. “I don’t think it really matters whether he lost twelve, twenty, or two seconds. He always wants to make his point,” Zonneveld explains. “He sees that racing on this circuit is going to pay off, and he has a great team around him. There’s just no chance he’ll get dropped.”