2026 Vuelta a España stage 17 preview | There is one chance to beat Matthew Brennan and Visma

The third week as the toughest week of a Grand Tour? Not in this Vuelta a España. After all that climbing and all that grueling riding in the heat during the first two weeks, the first two days of the decisive week feature—surprisingly—two flat stages. After the first opportunity on Tuesday, taken by Matt Brennan, an even better chance may follow on Wednesday.

Stage 17 of the Vuelta a España will take the peloton 185 kilometers from Dos Hermanas to Seville on Wednesday. With only about 900 meters of elevation gain, this is the flattest regular stage of the entire race, and the organizers have not included a single categorized climb along the route. So everything points to the sprinters.

If you look at the elevation profile, you’ll notice a few small dips along the way. However, it’s hardly much more than a slight incline. Unlike virtually all previous “sprint stages” in this Vuelta, teams don’t need to worry here about a climb where the fast riders might get dropped. That, in turn, makes the tactics very straightforward.

Sprint teams that aren’t willing to take responsibility here really have few excuses. As a result, it seems unlikely that an early breakaway will build up a massive lead over several hours. The first real competitive benchmark of the day doesn’t come until 165 kilometers in. The intermediate sprint will take place in San José de la Rinconada, just 20 kilometers from the finish.

From there, the race heads toward Seville. With just over 10 kilometers to go, the peloton enters the city. The route takes riders along the Ronda de Triana, Calle López de Gomara, and the Puente de los Remedios, among other streets, toward the Paseo de las Delicias. The finish line is then located on the Paseo Cristóbal Colón. The final kilometers still feature several turns and urban sections.

Positioning is therefore key, and unfortunately for the competition, Visma | Lease a Bike and Brennan are excelling in that area in this Vuelta. According to the current route information, the final major turn is located about 800 meters from the finish line, leaving enough space for the sprint trains to actually do their job. The only chance to beat the Brit?

Times
Start: 1:24 p.m CET
Finish: 5:20 p.m CET

And yes, it will be hot again in Andalusia on Wednesday. In Seville, temperatures are currently expected to reach around 34 degrees, with plenty of sunshine and only a few clouds. In the surrounding Campiña Sevillana, a yellow warning is in effect due to extreme heat, with locally higher temperatures possible.

The riders have gotten used to it by now after the exceptionally hot second week, but on a 185-kilometer stage, the temperature could once again become a factor—especially for riders who have already been racing for over two weeks. For now, the wind doesn’t appear to be getting extremely strong. Earlier forecasts indicate a west to northwest wind, with slightly stronger gusts toward Seville.

We could debate this at length, but based on this year’s Vuelta, there’s only one logical top favorite: Matthew Brennan. The 21-year-old Brit is virtually unbeatable in this Tour of Spain when it comes to sprinting, especially with a top-notch lead-out like Wout van Aert, who—even in a worst-case scenario—could still finish it off himself at Visma | Lease a Bike.

The fact that this is a truly flat finish, with hardly any obstacles, means that the truly fast riders have the best chance of beating Brennan. We’re not talking about the better climbers like Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility), and Hugo Hofstetter (NSN), but rather that one Belgian who’s been riding this entire stage just for this day.

Jordi Meeus will be looking to make a splash on behalf of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe. He didn’t make it this far for nothing, and even though Red Bull has Primoz Roglic to protect, Meeus will bang his fist on the table and demand some kind of lead-out. This is his one and only chance to still win.

The same actually applies to Alberto Dainese, the team’s fast man for Soudal Quick-Step. Vito Braet is also proving to be fast for Lotto-Intermarché. The sprinters who are generally better climbers seem to have less of a chance here. Think of Xabier Azparren (Pinarello-Q36.5), Alessandro Romele (XDS Astana), Vincenzo Albanese (EF Education-EasyPost), Orluis Aular (Movistar), and Matevž Govekar (Bahrain Victorious).

Top Favorite: Matthew Brennan (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Dark horses: Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), and Alberto Dainese (Soudal Quick-Step)
Long shots: Vito Braet (Lotto-Intermarché), Alessandro Romele (XDS Astana), Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility), Hugo Hofstetter (NSN), Orluis Aular (Movistar), Vincenzo Albanese (EF Education-EasyPost), Matevž Govekar (Bahrain Victorious)