Armstrong and Bruyneel predict when Pogacar will call it quits: "By then, he’ll have won everything there is to win"

The Tour de France starts with a team time trial in Barcelona, followed by a circuit on Montjuïc for the first stage. An early visit to the Pyrenees is followed by a series of stages in the low mountains and opportunities for the sprinters, after which a block in the Vosges, a time trial, and the double Alpe d'Huez stages should decide the outcome.

So, just one individual time trial. Bruyneel is pessimistic about his compatriot and world, Olympic, and European time trial champion Remco Evenepoel. “It's not a good route for Remco,” he analyzes in the podcast THEMOVE. “The time trial is only 26 kilometers, and the first 10 of those are uphill. It's a stage for the GC contenders; time trial specialists are definitely not at an advantage here.”

The time trial also takes place in stage 16, just before the final Alpine segment. No doubt the decisive stages are at the end of next year's Tour. “They want to keep the excitement going until the end, so that we don’t know who is going to win until the last moment. That’s why that super-difficult stage is only in stage 20. It’s the most difficult stage of the Tour,” he says, referring to the stage with the Col de la Croix de Fer, Galibier, and Alpe d’Huez.

Armstrong understands that the organization has chosen to focus on the end, but he doesn't think it matters much. “We know what's going to happen: it will be very exciting, or extremely predictable. If Pogacar is the same man he has been in recent years, it will be a lot of pace, control, and questioning other teams' tactics. But if he's going to have a hard time, the race could be fascinating.”

The question is: can you create a Tour de France where the Slovenian superstar is at a disadvantage? It doesn't seem likely. He appears to be well on his way to his fifth Tour victory, which is causing a lot of irritation, especially among the French. He was harassed during the European cycling championships, and there are often boos directed at the world champion in the Tour as well.

Armstrong knows what it's like to have the French against you. The Texan knows that Pogacar will keep his cool. “It doesn't matter. Whether they see smoke and fire, like with me, they'll say the same sh*t when they're done with your dominance. But not a hair on his head will think: I'll take it easy today. That's just not in him.”

Is there anyone who can threaten Pogacar? Bruyneel sees men like Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel falling short and doesn't think they can close the gap. “I don't think the man who will challenge Tadej is here yet,” says the former sports director of US Postal Services, among others. “It’s not Oscar Onley, it’s not Felix Gall, it’s not Florian Lipowitz.”

Once the Slovenian has secured his fifth Tour victory, the Belgian thinks he will only be seen in the peloton for a bit longer. Because there are only a few things left to tick off his wish list. 2028 seems to be the end of the line, he says. “He has four more things to win. It's Milan-Sanremo, it's Paris-Roubaix, it's the Vuelta, and the Olympic Games. After that, it's over. Then he will have won everything there is to win.”