Could dropped Pellizzari still play an important role in the Giro d'Italia podium fight?

The battle for the pink jersey is as good as decided in the Giro d’Italia, with Jonas Vingegaard way ahead of his rivals. Behind him, the fight for the podium gets serious from Friday onwards. Which of Felix Gall, Thymen Arensman and Jai Hindley comes out strongest? Thijs Zonneveld explains the balance of power in his podcast In de Waaier.

To sum it up: Gall is currently second overall. The Austrian of Decathlon CMA CGM has a lead of 24 seconds over Arensman, who in turn defends an advantage of 33 seconds over Hindley. Those are gaps that can absolutely disappear in the tough Dolomites stage, with the Passo Giau as the decisive climb.

Zonneveld gives Gall the best paper chances. “He does not need to apply pressure on the Giau yet,” said the Dutch analyst. “He is second and only has to spend two days doing what he has done for the last two weeks. He has been better than Arensman and Hindley on every climb. Why would that change now? If he does nothing strange, he will simply finish second.”

Arensman is therefore in third place, which leaves Hindley with the least positive outlook. “Hindley has to go for it. He has two options, he needs to make up 33 seconds in two mountain stages. He can do that by applying pressure on the Giau, early in the stage, to see whether he can use the climbs to make the difference. The gap is not big, but it is there.”

And that could be crucial already in stage 19. “He is behind, but in this stage there will be almost twenty kilometres above nine per cent today. Weight is simply going to play a major role there. We have had many climbs in this Giro of 6, 7, 8 per cent, and the last one in Carì too. Arensman was good there, but it was never percentages well above ten per cent. Today you will get that.”

So Hindley being able to drop Arensman is certainly possible. But that is only the first piece of the puzzle. “Suppose he goes over the top of the Giau with 30 seconds on Arensman, then what? Vingegaard will follow him anyway, and then he will not do very much. Gall will probably be there too, but he will not do much either. Then Hindley needs teammates who were already in the breakaway. A Vlasov, or a Pellizzari.”

Pellizzari was going for a strong general classification himself, but illness has taken him completely out of contention. The Italian could still play a key role for Hindley. “Hindley himself is slightly stronger than Arensman, but he does not have a team that is much better than INEOS. Unless Pellizzari has miracle legs and can ride on the front all the way up the Giau and drop Arensman. It would surprise me, but it is possible.”