Evenepoel, Roglic and Vingegaard should ask UAE in angry letter to allow Pogacar to participate in the Basque Country

While Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel gear up for the upcoming climax of the classics season, the Grand Tour riders are shaping their best possible form for the Tour de France. A notable observation as we head towards July is the rarity of seeing titans like Primoz Roglic, Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Remco Evenepoel clash against each other. However, the upcoming Tour of the Basque Country is set to change that, with all the heavy hitters, except Pogacar—who's opting for a different Giro prep—lining up to battle it out.

The big question is how the dynamics will play out in the tricky and fair Basque stage race. We've already caught some glimpses of what to expect. We saw Pogacar effortlessly conquer Catalonia, and Vingegaard stoically power to overall victories in O Gran Camino and Tirreno-Adriatico. Evenepoel appeared sharp, alert, and seems well on track in his preparation. Roglic, on the other hand, visibly had some startup problems. It's still three months until the start in Florence. Time to size up the top contenders in their run-up to the Tour de France clash.

Evenepoel's status: The Belgian champion will resent to have been beaten by Jorgenson and Martinez

We're kicking off with the quartet's wildcard. Not so much because of his abilities, but because of the ambition Remco Evenepoel sets for his Tour debut: a stage win and top five. Unlike the rest, he doesn't put the pressure on himself that winning the Tour is a must. The sharpness with which Evenepoel races would suggest otherwise. He dominated the Volta ao Algarve from the get-go, backed by a team that's firing on all cylinders. His team is on point, as evidenced by the well-oiled machine there and the peak form shown by his intended chief lieutenant Mikel Landa. Evenepoel also demonstrated his near invincibility in time trials, leaving little doubt of his capabilities.

And yet, Evenepoel will be annoyed that he was beaten uphill twice by Dani Martinez in Portugal and couldn't shake off Matteo Jorgonson in Paris-Nice, thus not winning the Race to the Sun. The Basque Country will show whether he can already match the top level of the last two years' tour king, Vingegaard, or if he's still a step behind. That battle really needs to take place for the first time properly. For now, Evenepoel seems to be in excellent shape and has a strong team ready. Fluctuations, whims, and dips in form seem to be slowly becoming a thing of the past. Seasoned and experienced, the former world champion can continue his preparation.

Status Pogacar: The outrageously strong UAE leader appears ready for the season of his life

His talents were already indisputable, and his form is alarmingly good in 2024. Tadej Pogacar showed in Strade Bianche just how determined he is to make 2024 an absolute banner year. His peak form in the Tour of Catalonia was at times just as impressive. Pogacar seems ready for the season of his life. The power difference with the other top climbers, including Vuelta winner Sepp Kuss, was immense. Pogi saw himself far above an impressive list of other participants, who didn't even attempt to seriously approach him.

This was exemplified by his second stage victory at Port Ainé. The brave Mikel Landa tried and managed to create a gap from the rest, but five seconds later saw someone climbing up twice as fast. Afterwards, there were remarkable words, which struck a note of humblebrag. He had indeed suffered, and he had found the days challenging. As if he needed to let everyone know he's human too, just like the rest of the Catalonia crowd. He also casually took stages six and seven. More than half (!) of the stage victories went to Pogacar. Had this not become the Tour of Pogacaria? He was outrageously strong. So strong, in fact, that he himself needs to start being cautious of the downsides of his dominance.

In a playful moment, Pogacar decided to hide from his fellow cyclists in the bushes following a bathroom break, just for a laugh. Such displays of overconfidence don't quite befit the world's top cyclist, almost as if he viewed the Tour of Catalonia as a leisurely ride among amateurs. Were the four emphatic stage victories not humiliating enough for his rivals? Such antics are best not repeated on the Tour's legendary climbs like the Galibier or the Bonette. Otherwise, the Tour champion of 2020 and 2021 might find a very different cadre of competitors ready to challenge him. Yet, these pranks also highlight Pogacar's overflowing confidence and ease, signaling a return to the stellar form we saw before 2023.

Status Vingegaard: Danish Tour dominator doesn’t need a strong Tour team in this form

Pogacar’s absolute antithesis seems to be Jonas Vingegaard in many ways. The Dane shies away from distractions and antics. Stoically, he completed his first stage races, also miles ahead of the competition. With seven wins under his belt, he's tied with Mads Pedersen as the most successful rider of 2024. Vingegaard faced little resistance in O Gran Camino, and in the Tirreno, he calmly dispatched a host of big names. Vingegaard appears incredibly cool, calculated, determined, and confident in his abilities. Like a self-assured rider who already knows how to secure a Tour hat trick. The world is eager for a showdown between Pogacar and Vingegaard. Unfortunately, we won’t get that in the next three months.

What we can look forward to next week is seeing how the dynamics with Roglic and Evenepoel will play out. However, the Visma | Lease a Bike core is more vulnerable than usual. Key lieutenant Sepp Kuss had a false start to 2024, and classic specialists Jan Tratnik, Tiesj Benoot, and Christophe Laporte are also struggling with physical issues. On the other hand, Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates aides are quite sharp. With Adam Yates, Joao Almeida, and the super-talented Juan Ayuso, Vingegaard, without Wout Van Aert and Roglic, will face what could be considered the best Tour team ever. In his current form, however, the Dane seems unbeatable and doesn’t seem to need a super team in July.

Status Roglic: BORA would do well to keep Hindley, Vlasov, and Martinez ready for July

The situation is quite different for his former teammate. Primoz Roglic was a shadow of his former self in Paris-Nice. The Slovenian conceded many minutes in the general classification and was barely noticeable in his season opener, aside from a few minor attacks. Roglic's performance in Paris-Nice contrasts sharply with his opening months over the last five years, which were filled with stage wins, overall victories, and podium finishes in similar races. Back then, Rogla was an early peaker. But the real peak needs to come in July. That’s the only consolation at the end of March. Roglic will be frustrated that he couldn't play a significant role in the not-so-competitive Paris-Nice.

However, it's not like Roglic to lose sleep over this. But then there's the team. Inside the GC core of BORA-hansgrohe, including in the team time trial, quite a few things went wrong. It’s clear that these growing pains need to be overcome and the absence of the Jumbo-Visma norms is quite an adjustment. Moreover, Roglic is the only one among the top quartet who is currently performing less impressively than a teammate: Aleksandr Vlasov. Vlasov also excelled in Catalonia, having already won the only mountain finish in Paris-Nice.

Alongside Vlasov, Martinez and former Giro winner Jai Hindley are expected to work for Roglic in July. What must these men be thinking if the Roglic machine still shows issues just before the Grand Départ in Tuscany? BORA would do well to keep these men in contention for a high placement in July. For now, the question marks surrounding Roglic are too significant. The Slovenian must hope that his peak form comes later this year. To start, Roglic needs to achieve a respectable result in the Basque Country compared to his Tour competitors. Let's hope he manages. Given his history, transfer, and achievements, Roglic remains the dream Tour winner for many.

All cycling fans would pay a fortune to see Pogacar participate in the Basque Country

The Tour of the Basque Country will provide clearer insight into the current state of affairs among the GC contenders. It seems unlikely that Roglic and Evenepoel will be able to outperform Vingegaard there. Even though the climbs are shorter than in the Tour and the treacherous nature of Itzulia suits the former two stars best, it’s truly a shame that Pogacar’s schedule just misses this trio. Ideally, Vingegaard, Roglic, and Evenepoel should send an angry letter to UAE, requesting the team to book a ticket to the Basque Country for Mr. T. Pogacar. Cycling fans around the globe would sign that letter. There, there would be no bushes left to play hide and seek in.