Favorites for stage 12 of the Giro d'Italia 2024 | A stage for climbers, but watch out for a Dowsett 2020-style surprise win!

Cycling
Wednesday, 15 May 2024 at 12:17
Sirotti Alex Dowsett giro 2020
We're only two days into the second week of the Giro, but there's already been plenty of action. This Thursday, the race around Fano presents a critical test where breakaway specialists will be eager to grab one of the few perfect opportunities in this year's Tour of Italy. IDLProCycling.com tells you everything you need to know.

Course stage 12 Giro d'Italia 2024

The riders kick off just after midday in Martinsicuro, nestled in the Abruzzo region along the Adriatic coast. For the first fifty kilometers, the riders will have the sea in view, but upon reaching Civitanova Marche, they will veer left. In the Marche region, known for its rolling hills, the riders will quickly find themselves tackling the undulating terrain.
The action heats up en route to Civitanova Alte, where the road ascends for 2.8 kilometers at a 4.7 percent gradient, marking the start of numerous tricky, typical Italian hills. The course continues through Montelupone, a town where Joaquim Rodriguez famously secured victories in the 2008 and 2009 editions of the Tirreno-Adriatico. Following that, there's an intermediate sprint in Recanati, strategically placed atop a 2.3-kilometer hill with an 8 percent incline.
So far, RCS has not categorized the earlier hills, but they do categorize the one at Osimo: it is 1.3 kilometers long at a 5.5% gradient, although the climb begins even before that. Afterwards, the peloton gets a bit of a breather before the next set of hills quickly follow one another. The hills at Monsano (1.8 km at 6.0%, after 126 kilometers), Ostra (1.0 km at 9.2%, after 138 kilometers), and La Croce (1.5 km at 6.7%, after 150 kilometers) all sit in the mid-section of the stage.
A breakaway is likely to have taken flight here, making these segments prime opportunities to create some separation in the pre-finale. After La Croce, there are just two more climbs, meaning that significant gaps could start to appear on the flatter sections. Alex Dowsett, for instance, won a similar stage in the 2020 Tour of Italy in this manner, outsmarting the better-climbing escapees.
Contine reading below the photo.
At Mondolfo, just under thirty kilometers from the finish, the bonus sprint brings more elevation: 1.2 kilometers at a 5.2% gradient. After a short descent and about ten kilometers on the flat, the route approaches the final challenge, Monte Glove. This peak, nine kilometers from the finish, features several sections over ten percent, making it an ideal launching pad.
This is the first time this climb has been included in the Giro route, after which we quickly head towards the historic center of Fano. In the last five kilometers, we encounter multiple turns and roundabouts, with the final turn being 450 meters from the finish, slightly uphill.
fano finish
Climbs
93.2km: Osimo (1.3km at 5.5%)
126.8km: Monsano (1.8km at 6.0%)
138.4km: Ostra (1.0km at 9.2%)
150.6km: La Croce (1.5km at 6.7%)
Times
Start: 12:25 PM
Finish: around 5:15 PM

Weather stage 12 Giro d'Italia 2024

The sun is shining on the Adriatic coast, with temperatures expected to exceed 20 degrees Celsius. The wind is coming from the southeast and will mostly be at the riders' backs throughout the day, but this typically doesn’t lead to echelon formations in the Giro d'Italia.

Favorites stage 12 Giro d'Italia 2024

If there were one stage that could favor a wide range of breakaway riders, it would be this twelfth stage to Fano. With many hills but none particularly severe, it's the kind of day that many opportunists target, including in this Giro d'Italia. Thus, we're betting on a long breakaway since we don't expect any single team to take control. However, the general classification riders, especially with the ongoing illnesses, need to stay alert.
INEOS Grenadiers is a team that has often tried to animate such stages. The British squad has Jonathan Narváez, who will likely be keen on this stage, but with Filippo Ganna and Magnus Sheffield, the team has two more riders who have shown form and have the capability to finish in various ways.
Looking at the sprinters, there are a few fast men who might be able to survive this. Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is certainly one of them, but the Australian is still locked in a fierce battle for the points jersey with the slightly less climbing-capable Jonathan Milan of Lidl-Trek. Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ), Danny van Poppel (BORA-hansgrohe), Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R), Madis Mikhels (Intermarché-Wanty), and even Caleb Ewan (Jayco AlUla) have also been climbing well in this Giro.
This group of men will likely 'just have to do it' via the break away, as most of the peloton expects it. Teams like Visma | Lease a Bike (Attila Valter, Jan Tratnik, and Tim van Dijke), EF Education-EasyPost (Michael Valgren and Andrea Piccolo), Soudal Quick-Step (Julian Alaphilippe and Mauri Vansevenant), Astana Qazaqstan Team (Cristian Scaroni, Davide Ballerini, and Simone Velasco), and Tudor (Matteo Trentin) have little to lose at this point.
Additionally, there are several experienced attackers active in this Giro. Riders like Max Schachmann (BORA-hansgrohe), Alessandro de Marchi (Jayco AlUla), Simon Clarke (Israel-Premier Tech), Andrea Bagioli (Lidl-Trek—also keep an eye on Jasper Stuyven), Kevin Vermaerke (dsm-firmenich PostNL), and Aurélien Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R) have already tried but are still hungry for more. Pelayo Sanchez (Movistar) and Benjamin Thomas (Cofidis, where Simon Geschke also rides) can start more relaxed having already won a stage.

Favorites stage 12 Giro d'Italia 2024, according to IDLProCycling.com

Top favorites:Jhonatan Narváez (INEOS Grenadiers) and Max Schachmann (BORA-hansgrohe)
Outsiders:Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers), Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ), Michael Valgren (EF Education-EasyPosy) and Attila Valter (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Long shots: Andrea Vendrame, Aurélien Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R), Danny van Poppel (BORA-hansgrohe), Andrea Bagioli (Lidl-Trek), Mauri Vansevenant (Soudal Quick-Step), Alessandro de Marchi (Jayco AlUla), Matteo Trentin (Tudor), Magnus Sheffield (INEOS Grenadiers), Cristian Scaroni (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Kevin Vermaerke (dsm-firmenich PostNL)

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