Favorites stage 1 Tour de France 2023 | Van der Poel and Van Aert to face the Tadej P. factor

After the team presentation on Thursday, set against the magnificent backdrop of the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao, we kick off on Saturday at the football stadium of Athletic Club de Bilbao, the pride of local football fans in Bilbao. The "new" San Mamés, which opened its doors in 2013, has been serving as the home of the football club for the past ten years.

The actual starting line is located just outside the city, where the Tour de France 2023 will officially get going. Right from the beginning, things could get interesting as the first mountain points are awarded a mere fourteen kilometers into the race. The Cote de Laukiz stretches for 2.2 kilometers with an average gradient of 6.9 percent, followed by a descent towards the coastal town of Getxo.

From there, we set course in a northern direction, with the centerpiece of the stage being the Cote de San Juan de Gaztelugatxe (3.5 kilometers at 7.6 percent) and an intermediate sprint in Gernika-Lumo. Starting from Nabarniz, the easternmost point, we then make our way back towards Bilbao for the final 55 kilometers.

The Col de Morga (3.9 kilometers at 4.1 percent) serves as a warm-up before the Cote de Vivero, which marks the beginning of the final 30 kilometers. This hill stretches for 4.2 kilometers with a delightful average gradient of 7.2 percent. At the top of this Vivero, where Marc Soler made a decisive move in last year's Vuelta, we encounter a small plateau before heading towards the true highlight of the day.

Twelve kilometers from the finish, the imposing Cote de Pike appears, a two-kilometer climb with an average gradient of 10 percent. But that's not all, because on the second kilometer the track really ramps up with an astonishing 13.1 percent gradient. Following a steady descent, we then make our way towards the finish in Bilbao, where the final kilometer also ascends at 5.4 percent. What an exciting day this promises to be!

By the way, this finale is partly the same as the 2022 Circuito de Getxo, although back then they had to head towards the finish in the coastal town of Getxo, whereas now they finish in Bilbao, which is much closer. Juan Ayuso won that race, and Wilco Kelderman finished third. Does this tell us anything about the dynamics for Saturday?

Times
Start: 12:55 p.m.
Finish: 5:15 p.m.

The temperatures in Bilbao on Saturday appear to be ideal. It is forecast to be 24 degrees Celsius, with no chance of rain, and the riders will get to enjoy tailwinds during the finale.

Showdown! There will be no hiding in this first stage of the Tour de France, that much is clear. It is highly unlikely that we will see a group of thirty riders arriving in Bilbao. The better punchers and general classification contenders are expected to make their moves right away, setting the stage for various possible scenarios.

Mathieu van der Poel himself has marked this stage as one of importance, although he is not completely certain of his chances. His team, Alpecin-Deceuninck, has already done reconnaissance and they have full confidence in their rider's prospects. Rival Wout van Aert, while not as punchy as Van der Poel, should be able to keep up on a good day. However, this terrain is likely too challenging for other typically strong climbing sprinters such as Biniam Girmay and Mads Pedersen.

However, there is one unpredictable factor for this stage, and that is Tadej Pogacar. The Slovenian has not competed in any WorldTour races since his fall in Liège-Bastogne-Liège, which leaves some uncertainty regarding his form. What we do know is that if Pogacar is in top form and motivated, he will undoubtedly be the man to beat in this first stage of the Tour.

Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers) and Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quick-Step) also have their sights set on this stage. Both are punchy riders, but haven't consistently reached their peak performance in recent weeks. However, for these guys that doesn't mean much: when they are on their game, they can demonstrate remarkable prowess and deliver extraordinary performances.

Now, let's talk about the general classification contenders. Jonas Vingegaard will be present, but to win, he would likely need to make a solo breakaway. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ, alongside teammate Valentin Madouas) and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek, along with teammate Giulio Ciccone) possess a sharp sprint in a smaller group. Riders such as Dylan Teuns, Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Maxim Van Gils (Lotto-Dstny), Benoit Cosnefroy (AG2R Citroën Team), Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious) and Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost) have proven their worth in the Ardennes classics.

Now, let's not forget the local heroes, with Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), Alex Aranburu (Movistar), and Ion Izagirre (Cofidis) leading the charge. A victory in this stage would be a crowning achievement in their careers, but it won't come easy. All three of them have already displayed promising performances in the lead-up to the Tour.

For general classification riders such as the Yates brothers, Adam (UAE) and Simon (Jayco-AlUla), Richard Carapaz (EF), Ben O'Connor (AG2R Citroën Team), Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe) and Romain Bardet (DSM), this stage may not be one where they can win, but they still need to stay attentive and focused.

Top favorites: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) and Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
Outsiders: Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal Quick-Step), Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)
Longshots: Alex Aranburu (Movistar), Benoit Cosnefroy (AG2R Citroën Team) Dylan Teuns (Israel-Premier Tech), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma), Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) and Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla)

Tadej Pogacar - 4.00
Wout van Aert - 5.50
Mathieu van der Poel - 5.50
Tom Pidcock - 12.00
Mattias Skjelmose - 13.00

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