Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 4 favourites | First stage on Italian soil could be torn apart by crosswinds!

A rest day after the opening weekend of a Grand Tour — it should be illegal. The riders do, however, need to get from Bulgaria to southern Italy, and so a Monday off is very much needed before the 'real' Giro d'Italia begins. Down at the toe of Europe's boot, we have an intriguing stage profile waiting for us when racing resumes on Tuesday May 12.

As noted, day four of the Giro finally brings us to Italy — specifically Catanzaro, the capital of the Calabria region. You could hardly go further south in Italy, and the Giro does not visit these parts very often. The combination with Bulgaria made it possible, so southern Italy gets its share of the race.

Tuesday covers just 144 kilometres, finishing in Cosenza. There are three climbs along the way, though only one is categorised. The Cozzo Tunno will be the decisive ascent — at 14.4 kilometres averaging 5.9%, with gradients peaking at 11%, it is more than demanding enough to cause real problems for the sprinters.

The handful of hairpin bends make it a beautiful climb, and fortunately for the riders the descent that follows is less technical. There is one tricky section near San Fili, after which the road runs pleasantly towards Petraro.

The summit sits 43 kilometres from the finish; the riders reach the bottom of the descent 22 kilometres out. And there is good reason to keep pushing even if a sprinter has been dropped — the finish in Cosenza is neither flat nor straight. In the final 3 kilometres, the road climbs very gradually but steadily on wide, winding roads. The final 450 metres are reported by the organisation to average 3.7%.

The most important factor to discuss ahead of Tuesday is the forecast wind. Strong westerly-to-southwesterly winds are predicted, and because the route heads northward, crosswind echelons are a real possibility. In cycling, crosswinds can split the peloton into diagonal chains of riders — or echelons — with catastrophic consequences for anyone caught on the wrong side. For the first 40 kilometres the route is reasonably sheltered and may even offer a headwind; but after 40 kilometres, the riders turn right and spend 40 kilometres racing along the coast.

Riding along the coast typically means exposed terrain — and that is exactly what Google Maps shows. If the wind is indeed blowing at Beaufort force 3, 4 or 5 from the west-southwest, echelons are a very real prospect. It is only once the day's climb is reached — 57 kilometres from the finish — that the riders turn right again and head inland, with the wind typically at their backs from there.

Start: 2:00 p.m. local (1:00 p.m. BST / 8:00 a.m. ET)

Finish: approx. 5:15 p.m. local

Catanzaro and southern Italy conjure images of warmth — but Tuesday will not get above 21°C at the start. At the finish in Cosenza the conditions will be pleasant racing weather, with the one crucial factor we have already flagged at length: the wind.

At the start, Beaufort force 4 to 5 from the south-west is forecast; at the finish, further inland, Beaufort force 2 from the west. Along the way, after 40 kilometres the riders hit the coast and head 40 kilometres northward to the foot of the climb. Whether it becomes a crosswind spectacle or the wind just fails to be quite strong or well-angled enough is ultimately in the hands of the weather gods.

For the day's contenders, the strength of the actual wind on the southern Italian coast on Tuesday will be critical. If echelons form and the GC riders have to go full gas, breakaway riders will usually pay the price — particularly if big names are split off and rival GC teams drive the pace to the finish.

In that scenario, we are looking for strong crosswind riders who can also survive the climb and then sprint uphill on the slight false flat drag to the line. There are a good number of those: Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step), Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM) and Ethan Vernon (NSN) all fit the bill.

Add to that list Madis Mihkels (EF Education-EasyPost), Erlend Blikra (Uno-X Mobility), Ben Turner (Netcompany INEOS) and Giovanni Lonardi (Polti VisitMalta). And who might XDS Astana be able to play if both Matteo Malucelli and race leader Guillermo Thomas Silva survive the crosswinds and the climb?

All of these riders will be important even if the wind plays no role and the climb is not ridden to the limit. In a more straightforward scenario, Dylan Groenewegen (Unibet Rose Rockets), Pascal Ackermann (Jayco AlUla) and Paul Penhoët (Groupama-FDJ) will also be hoping to make it to the finish. Riders like Corbin Strong (NSN) and Orluis Aular (Movistar), on the other hand, are sprinters who actually thrive on a harder race.

We have covered the sprinters, but who says it will come to a sprint at all? What if the wind is strong? What if the climb is attacked hard? Who would genuinely still be there? In that scenario, should we not be looking at physically powerful all-rounders like Mick van Dijke (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), António Morgado (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Michael Valgren (EF Education-EasyPost), Filippo Ganna (Netcompany INEOS), Jasper Stuyven (Soudal Quick-Step) and Lukas Kubis (Unibet Rose Rockets)?

There is also the scenario where the GC riders make it truly hard — driving full gas and turning the climb into a selection race. Riders like Florian Stork (Tudor), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) and Christian Scaroni (XDS Astana) have already shown their quality, though none of them are natural crosswind specialists. And why should Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) not sprint for the win and the time bonuses if the opportunity presents itself?

There is one final scenario: a breakaway that stays away, with or without crosswinds. Riders sitting more than a minute down on the maglia rosa then come into focus. Names such as Alec Segaert (Lotto-Intermarché), Magnus Sheffield (Netcompany INEOS), Diego Ulissi (XDS Astana), Jhonatan Narváez (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Embret Svestad-Bårdseng (also Netcompany INEOS) offer some attractive candidates — and none of them were hurt in the crash mayhem of the opening weekend.

Top favorites: Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step) and Filippo Ganna (Netcompany INEOS)
Outsiders: Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM), Mick van Dijke (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Jhonatan Narváez (UAE Emirates-XRG) and Alec Segaert (Lotto-Intermarché)
Long shots:Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Ethan Vernon (NSN), Erlend Blikra (Uno-X Mobility), Ben Turner, Magnus Sheffield (Netcompany INEOS), Matteo Malucelli, Christian Scaroni (both XDS Astana), Dylan Groenewegen (Unibet Rose Rockets),Antonio Morgado (UAE Emirates-XRG), Michael Valgren (EF), Jasper Stuyven (Quick Step), Lukas Kubis (Rockets), Florian Stork (Tudor) and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)