Favorites stage 1 Tour de France 2025 | A unique chance for big, fast men and their lead-out trains

This year’s Tour de France kicks off in Hauts-de-France, in northern France. The Grand Départ will take place in Lille, with a stage that both starts and finishes in the city. From the start line, the riders head south, passing through towns like Seclin, Lens and Lievin – which hosted the cyclo-cross world championships earlier this year – before reaching the first categorized climb of the day.

That climb is the Col de Notre-Dame-de-Lorette (1 km at 7.6%), which comes after 40 kilometers of racing. It’s a prime spot for riders targeting the first polka-dot jersey of this Tour. At the top, the peloton changes direction, turning north.

From there, the route flattens out, leading to the first intermediate sprint at 87.5 kilometers. This will give us an early idea of who’s aiming for the green jersey this year, as up to twenty points are on offer at that sprint.

Next up is Mont Cassel, a 1.9 km climb at 3.5 percent, well-known from the Four Days of Dunkirk and recent French championships. After this, the riders turn east again, heading back towards Lille with 80 kilometers to go.

The route skirts the Belgian border several times without crossing it. With 45 kilometers left, the riders face the last uphill challenge: Mont Noir (1.3 km at 6.4%), a climb also featured in Gent-Wevelgem. By then, the tension in the peloton will likely already be high, with the finish line just an hour away.

So what about the finale? The approach to Lille is mostly on long, straight roads, but at four kilometers to go, the riders hit a more technical section of about two kilometers. At this point, the top sprinters will need to be right at the front.

The final corner comes at 1.5 kilometers from the finish, leading onto the wide Boulevard Vauban. And above all, let’s hope everyone gets there safely on this opening day of the Tour.

Climbs
41.2 km: Col de Notre-Dame-de-Lorette (1 km at 7.6%)
106.0 km: Mont Cassel (1.9 km at 3.5%)
139.7 km: Mont Noir (1.3 km at 6.4%)

Times
Start: 1:26 PM local time (7:26 AM EDT)
Finish: 5:36 PM local time (11:36 AM EDT)

It’s been a very warm week across Western Europe, but Saturday looks to be a bit milder. In Lille, the temperature is expected to peak at around 24°C, with a chance of rain in the morning. Winds will be light.

For the sprinters, this stage offers a rare opportunity to take the yellow jersey, so we can expect plenty of sprint fireworks in and around Lille. Based on this year’s results, Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step) is the man to beat. The Belgian, who was born not far from Lille, has been the dominant sprinter so far in 2025. The only drawback: he has just one key lead-out man in Bert Van Lerberghe.

Jonathan Milan’s setup looks very different. Riding for Lidl-Trek, which is aiming for as many stage wins as possible, he has a full lead-out train at his disposal. Jasper Stuyven, Simone Consonni and Edward Theuns will work to bring the Italian powerhouse into position, knowing that once he’s up to speed, he’s incredibly hard to beat.

Jasper Philipsen has won nine Tour stages over the past three seasons and is also bringing a strong lead-out, including Kaden Groves and Mathieu van der Poel. Add in experienced riders like Jonas Rickaert, and it’s clear Philipsen will be right in the mix, he probably prefers it if the finish is more selective.

Dylan Groenewegen is the sprinter on duty for Jayco AlUla. The Dutchman has dreamed of wearing yellow for years and knows this could be his last big chance, so expect to see him fighting at the front. The same goes for Phil Bauhaus of Bahrain Victorious, who is still on the hunt for his first Tour stage win. Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) seized his chance at the first sprint stage last year, setting up a strong overall Tour performance for him. Can he do it again in 2025?

With four sprint opportunities in the first nine days, many teams have brought their top sprinters to Lille. Given the ongoing promotion and relegation battles, some squads are even starting with two sprinters: Cofidis (Alexis Renard and Bryan Coquard), Picnic PostNL (Tobias Lund Andresen and Pavel Bittner), XDS-Astana (Cees Bol and Davide Ballerini), and Arkéa - B&B Hotels (Arnaud Démare and Clément Venturini) are all taking this approach.

Uno-X (Soren Waerenskjold and Stian Fredheim) and Israel-Premier Tech (Pascal Ackermann and Jake Stewart) are doing the same. Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe has two sprinters too: Jordi Meeus and Danny van Poppel. Both have been in top form recently, and with Van Poppel’s positioning skills, this stage is a great opportunity for either of them to make history.

Finally, other contenders include Arnaud De Lie (Lotto), Paul Penhoët (Groupama-FDJ), Alberto Dainese (Tudor) and Emillien Jeanniere (TotalEnergies). As for Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers) and Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), it remains to be seen what their specific plans are for this stage.

Top favorites:Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step) and Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek)
Outsiders:Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) and Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla)
Long shots: Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech), Soren Waerenskjold (Uno-X), Alberto Dainese (Tudor), Arnaud Démare (Arkéa - B&B Hotels), Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious), Pavel Bittner (Picnic PostNL) and Danny van Poppel (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)