Favorites mountain classification Vuelta a España 2025 | In Spain, big GC contenders can suddenly turn into king of the mountains candidates
CyclingWednesday, 20 August 2025 at 10:43
For the Giro d'Italia and the Tour de France, the odds are often pretty clear, but in the Vuelta a España, it's always a question of who's gonna go for the polka dot jersey and the mountain classification. Bad luck along the way, not having the legs for a GC after a long year, or being so dominant as a leader that you take most of the points on all those mountain finishes; there are many reasons to say that the Vuelta's mountain classification is impossible to predict in advance. And yet we're going to give it a try...
There is no place for sprinters in the Tour of Spain, as there are climbs almost every day. This means there are a lot of points up for grabs. The rulebook awards the most points to the Angliru. The first rider to reach the top will earn 20 points. There are 15 points up for grabs on the Bola del Mundo. The rest of the climbs do not offer much for the climbers. A maximum of 10 points is available for the first category, 5 for the second category, 3 for the third category, and 2 for the fourth category.
This means that there are no excessive amounts of points to be earned, unlike in the Tour de France, where 40 points are awarded for the highest climb of the race. Attacking will pay off, even though many stages end uphill. The Angliru on day 13 and the Bola del Mundo on day 20 may well be for the GC contenders, and if one rider stands out, he will already have 35 points. Check out the full distribution of mountain points below:
Cima Alberto Fernández - Angliru
20, 15, 10, 6, 4, 2
20, 15, 10, 6, 4, 2
Hors category - Bola del Mundo
15, 10, 6, 4, 2, 1
15, 10, 6, 4, 2, 1
First category (15 climbs)
10, 6, 4, 2, 1
10, 6, 4, 2, 1
Second category (14 climbs)
5, 3, 1
5, 3, 1
Third category (14 climbs)
3, 2, 1
3, 2, 1
Fourth category (1 climb)
2, 1
2, 1
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Last winners polka dot jersey (mountain classification) La Vuelta a España
2024 Jay Vine
2023 Remco Evenepoel
2022 Richard Carapaz
2021 Michael Storer
2020 Guillaume Martin
2019 Geoffrey Bouchard
2018 Thomas De Gendt
2017 Davide Villella
2016 Omar Fraile
2015 Omar Fraile
2023 Remco Evenepoel
2022 Richard Carapaz
2021 Michael Storer
2020 Guillaume Martin
2019 Geoffrey Bouchard
2018 Thomas De Gendt
2017 Davide Villella
2016 Omar Fraile
2015 Omar Fraile
Favorites mountain classification La Vuelta a España 2025
To compile this list, (former) editors at IDLProCycling.com were asked for their top ten in response to the question: "Who is most likely to win the mountain classification in the Vuelta a España 2025?" Each top ten was assigned points: 12 points for first place, 10 for second place, and then 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 points, respectively.
10. Georg Steinhauser - EF Education-EasyPost
There are an incredible number of riders we could have mentioned first, men who have proven themselves in the past as pure attackers and who will now be given a playground in the Vuelta. Georg Steinhauser must still have something left in the tank after the 23-year-old German from EF Education-EasyPost was only just fit in time for the Giro due to injury and, after the Tour of Italy, only managed two days of the Tour of Austria due to stomach problems.
Other than that, his preparation consisted of extensive training. And if Steinhauser has found his super legs, he has already proven himself several times as someone who is not afraid to attack. He dares to go for it from far back, has already beaten big names to stage wins in the 2024 Giro, and we hope to see that again in the Vuelta. With Richard Carapaz for the GC, his freedom may be limited, but that can also go hand in hand.
9. Giulio Ciccone - Lidl-Trek
Giulio Ciccone is actually a strange choice here. Because if the Italian from Lidl-Trek had made the polka dot jersey his goal, as he has in the past, he would have to be much higher in the rankings. And if, like in this year's Giro, he wants to go all out for the general classification, isn't the mountains classification a realistic goal? Maybe not, but the Giulio Ciccone of 2025 is the best Ciccone we've ever seen—one who might just be able to go for both the GC and the polka dot jersey.
If he can stay with the favorites, he will pick up a lot of mountain points. And if he doesn't make the GC, he might just be the favorite for the polka dot jersey in Madrid. These are all “what if” scenarios, because Ciccone will first and foremost be aiming for a top GC finish. We'll see what happens after that.
8. Ben O'Connor - Jayco-AlUla
For example, Ben O'Connor's victory on Col de la Loze in the final week of the Tour de France was awe-inspiring. The Australian wanted to go for the GC with Jayco-AlUla, but saw that fade away after a crash in the first week. So he grew in the Tour and found his miracle legs in the final week. All that good climbing almost earned him a top ten finish, but he ended up eleventh in the Tour.
O'Connor finished fourth in the Giro and second in the Vuelta in 2024, after wearing the red jersey for days thanks to a breakaway in the first week. He will not be under the illusion that they will give him those minutes again, so attacking and the mountains classification may well be the best option after a tough Tour. If he has the Col de la Loze legs in the Vuelta, nothing stands in the way of an excellent Tour of Spain.
7. João Almeida - UAE Team Emirates-XRG
Higher up this list, we mention another GC contender who could go for the polka dot jersey with a dominant Vuelta, but João Almeida is a worthy second. The Portuguese rider is going all out for the classification with UAE Team Emirates-XRG, and if his legs are as strong as they were for the rest of 2025, it could be a very dominant race. The presence of Jonas Vingegaard makes his mission for red and polka dots very complex, but anything is possible in cycling.
Almeida took an impressive step forward as a climber in 2025, suddenly starting to win. He added nine victories to his palmares, while he had ‘only’ fourteen before this year. Almeida has plenty to offer and is, therefore, not without reason, the main favorite for the overall victory behind Vingegaard. And if he is really good, takes the red jersey and starts winning stages, the mountain points will come his way quickly.
6. Cristián Rodriguez - Arkéa-B&B Hotels
In the Tour de France, most of the attention at Arkéa-B&B Hotels went to Kévin Vauquelin, but in the shadow of the French home favorite, Cristián Rodríguez also did a great job. The 30-year-old Spaniard finished twentieth in the overall standings, taking another step forward in his development. He has already finished thirteenth twice in the last two editions of the Vuelta, but shouldn't he be aiming for something else this year?
Rodriguez will not hesitate to fight hard for the struggling and pro-continental Arkéa-B&B Hotels team, and he may even put himself in the spotlight if his team is unable to continue in 2026 due to sponsorship problems. Rodriguez is climbing better than ever, and if he embraces the mountain classification, he will try to stay in the breakaway for three weeks.
5. Santiago Buitrago - Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious will bring an impressive climbing team to Spain, but for the GC, it will mainly focus on Antonio Tiberi and Damiano Caruso. The two impressed in the last two editions of the Giro d'Italia, where Santiago Buitrago was outplayed in the Tour de France for the previous two years. That went very well with tenth place in the final classification in 2024, but in July of this year, Buitrago crashed hard and fell out of contention.
A free role seems to be waiting for him in the Vuelta, because Buitrago is far too good to just play second fiddle to Tiberi and Caruso, isn't he? In principle, the Italians don't need that at all, so we would prefer to see Buitrago in a role in which he excelled in the 2022 and 2023 Giros. He won a stage in both editions, and with Buitrago's climbing skills, a mountain classification should also be considered realistic.
4. Felix Gall - Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale
After an outstanding Tour de France, the season can't get any better for Felix Gall. The 27-year-old Austrian from Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale finished fifth in the Tour de France, fulfilling his ambitions in the GC. Usually, he won't go for another three weeks of GC racing, and if logic prevails, he will be able to put his excellent climbing legs to good use elsewhere.
Gall earned his final ranking in the Tour with superb climbing legs in the third week, and he remains a pure climber at heart. That will come in handy in the Vuelta, because it's up and down from start to finish so that Gall can go all out for stage wins and the mountain classification. Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale has two other contenders for the polka dots in Johannes Staune-Mittet and Léo Bisiaux, but Gall has the most potential on paper.
3. Jonas Vingegaard - Visma | Lease a Bike
Because not many points are awarded per climb, the chance that the winner of the Vuelta will win the polka dot jersey is not as high as in, for example, the Tour de France. But if Jonas Vingegaard is very dominant in the next three weeks, the polka dots will automatically come into play. With so many mountain finishes, Vingegaard won't have to fight for points along the way to still reap the rewards with the best climbing legs on all those steep final climbs.
Visma | Lease a Bike is not normally a team that keeps something like this in mind; the polka dot jersey only came automatically in the 2022 Tour because Vingegaard was so good at the time. The big question is how the odds are stacked. On paper, Vingegaard is the top favorite for red, and if he has anything left in the tank like Tadej Pogacar, he could just as easily go home with two jerseys. After two consecutive Tour defeats and his injury in 2024, Vingegaard will be eager to win.
2. Mikel Landa - Soudal-Quick Step
Fans of Mikel Landa will be delighted, because the 35-year-old Spaniard from Soudal-Quick Step is not going for a GC finish in his own country. After his heavy crash in the Giro d'Italia, Landa has recovered well, but his team would rather let him enjoy three weeks of racing in Spain than have him fight for a top ten finish, or more... This means that we will see Landa on the attack for the first time in a long time, which brings back memories of good times.
Think back to the 2017 Giro d'Italia, when Landa won a stage, attacked throughout the race to collect mountain points, and was also declared the most combative rider. If his legs are in good shape and, as is usually the case, improve during the Vuelta, Landa certainly has the qualities to stay with a chasing peloton on many climbs. The big question is: does he dare to do that? Or does he prefer a stage victory, and maybe even a place in the GC?
1. Lorenzo Fortunato - XDS Astana
If Lorenzo Fortunato had put on a backpack full of bricks in the last week of the Giro d'Italia and finished last every day, he would still have won the mountains classification. The 29-year-old Italian from XDS Astana came to the Tour of Italy with a mission and latched onto the polka dot jersey from the first opportunity in the first week. That earned him an incredible number of points, with his teammate Christian Scaroni finishing 154 points behind Fortunato in second place.
Now that XDS Astana has announced that it will copy the tactics of the Giro and Tour de France and go all out for UCI points until the last day of racing in 2025, Fortunato is the obvious choice to go for it in the Vuelta as well. With a second place in the Tour of Burgos, he proved he has excellent legs, and if he dares to give up a possible top ten finish for the polka dots, the rest of the peloton had better watch out.
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