Favorites Stage 1 Vuelta a España 2023 | INEOS can pose a real threat to Jumbo-Visma, should Evenepoel be worried?

Eighteen sharp turns over fourteen kilometers; Jumbo-Visma called the course "challenging and technical" for a reason. The race against the clock is intended to create some differences in the classification early on, but above all, it's also an ideal opportunity to get to know Barcelona. "The course goes through some of the most emblematic locations in the city center of Barcelona," reads the La Vuelta website. We pass, among other places, the Sagrada Familia.

The organization does not expect very large differences, but a year ago in Utrecht a similar circuit was laid out and the difference between the number one and two was already thirteen seconds. The numbers four and five even lost more than half a minute. In short: those who really want to go for it will definitely get the opportunity in Barcelona.

The map above shows that as we move away from the coast, it initially involves some twists and turns. As soon as we pass the Gran Via de les Corts Catalanes, the big engines can do their work. We turn left shortly afterward, and from there, for a stretch of just under seven kilometers, more than five kilometers are straight ahead.

Barcelona is characterized by an almost New York-like layout, with long, straight roads that are best visible from an airplane. This means that when no turns need to be made, it's pretty much straightforward. Full power, therefore; teams that have worked hard on this will definitely have an advantage here.

Barcelona is characterized by long, straight main roads; .

Times:
Start of the first team: 6:55 PM
Finish of the last team: about 8:35 PM

It's hot in Barcelona leading up to the first stage, but the riders will not be too affected by it over the weekend. A temperature of above 40 degrees will give way to a temperature under 30 degrees when we start on Saturday evening.

The possibility of rain remains, although it depends on the weather gods whether it will start early on Saturday evening or only later, towards the night. The buienradar is optimistic in that respect, while Google predicts thunderstorms by late afternoon...

Jumbo-Visma has been dominant in the team time trial in recent years. The Dutch team won last year's first stage in the Vuelta, and they recently succeeded in the Tour of Burgos as well. However, performance coach Mathieu Heijboer told this website that Jumbo-Visma might not be the top favorite. Phrases like "not a team time trial that suits us" and "we lack a strong powerhouse like Affini or Van Aert" came up.

Despite the absence of specialized time-triallists, we're standing our ground and still ranking Jumbo-Visma as the top team for this Saturday's event. It's hard to overlook a lineup that includes powerhouses like Jonas Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic, Jan Tratnik, and Dylan van Baarle, as well as strong contributors like Wilco Kelderman and Attila Valter. Rounded out by Robert Gesink and Sepp Kuss, Jumbo-Visma is a team that clearly prioritizes these types of challenges, and we expect them to put on a strong performance in Barcelona.

The main challenger is INEOS Grenadiers, and not just because the British team came in second in Utrecht last year. INEOS's selection is specifically built for the team time trial, featuring Filippo Ganna as a major powerhouse. "The team time trial is a big opportunity for us, and I know I'll play a key role in our success," the Italian has already stated. The team aims to win this Saturday; that much is clear. With additional strong riders like Geraint Thomas, Thymen Arensman, Laurens De Plus, and Jonathan Castroviejo, it's hard to see why they couldn't.

Soudal-Quick Step was just one second behind INEOS last year, but usually that difference would be more significant. The Wolfpack boasts Remco Evenepoel, the world time trial champion, so we expect a strong performance from them. However, their Vuelta team for 2023 is slightly less impressive in terms of time trialing compared to 2022. They lack Julian Alaphilippe, Rémi Cavagna, and Ilan Van Wilder but have added James Knox, Andrea Bagioli, and Casper Pedersen. Therefore, it will likely be up to Evenepoel and specialist Mattia Cattaneo.

As we scroll down further, we encounter the outsiders: teams that might not come to mind immediately but are well-equipped to surprise. Consider UAE Team Emirates, who have two strong time trialists in Juan Ayuso and João Almeida as their leaders. Add Jay Vine, Finn Fisher-Black, Rui Oliveira, and Domen Novak, and you have a lot of horsepower on board. Movistar surprised in the Tour of Burgos by finishing second after Jumbo-Visma. In the Vuelta, they're starting with a similar lineup featuring strong engines like Oier Lazkano, Nelson Oliveira, and Iván Garcia Cortina.

The same goes for EF Education-EasyPost, which will be starting Stefan Bissegger in the Filippo Ganna category. The Swiss rider will have to set the pace for his team, as will Lennard Kämna for BORA-hansgrohe. The Germans have a good team for a team time trial, but usually fall just short of competing for the win. The same is true for Jayco-AlUla and Bahrain Victorious, who have fewer fast guys on the team compared to last year when they were strong in the time trial.

Top favorites: Jumbo-Visma and INEOS Grenadiers
Outsiders: Soudal-Quick Step, UAE Team Emirates and EF Education-EasyPost
Longshots: Movistar, BORA-hansgrohe, Bahrain Victorious and Jayco-AlUla