Favorites stage 11 Vuelta a España 2025 | Dizzying gradients in this mini-Clásica!

Racing in the Basque Country means climbing, and in a very characteristic way. The route could hardly be more Basque: there is hardly a flat moment in the eleventh stage. Right from the start in Bilbao, it's straight into the Alto de Laukiz, followed immediately by the Alto de Sollube: two short, not too challenging climbs, but a vicious start.

Then there is a valley until the famous Balcón de Bizkaia. Seven years ago, Michael Woods won his very first stage in a Grand Tour here. This time, the unpredictable climb comes much earlier in the race. The Alto de Morga is about halfway through the stage, but it is a lot less difficult than the previous climbs.

However, the real challenge lies at the end of the stage. First of all, the Alto del Vivero is a grueling test about 60 kilometers from the finish. This climb (4.3 km at 7.8%) is very unpredictable and has two kilometers of more than 12%. After an intermediate sprint in Bilbao, this climb is tackled again, followed by the final climb, which is just under 10 kilometers from the finish.

The Alto de Pike is a real killer. This climb is the main obstacle in the Circuito de Getxo, but now it is in the final stage of this beautiful Vuelta stage. After the first 900 meters of this climb at an average gradient of 4.5%, it doesn't get any easier than 11%, with peaks far above that. It will be a real struggle! This is followed by a descent, after which the finish in Bilbao will be on a slight incline.

Times
Start: 1:51 PM local time (07:51 AM EDT)
Finish: around 5:20 PM local time (11:20 AM EDT)

It can be rough in the Basque Country from time to time, but for now, it looks like it will be a nice, warm day for racing. It seems like it will stay dry, but it will be around 30 degrees. A gentle southwesterly wind will not make any difference to the course of the race.

With climbs like these, especially the Pike so close to the finish line, it's not unlikely that the favorites will have a great day. And then, of course, all eyes will be on Jonas Vingegaard. The Dane from Visma | Lease a Bike seems unbeatable when it comes to climbing, and he has also become a lot more explosive. However, João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) won the Tour of the Basque Country: will it be a great duel?

Not if it's up to Giulio Ciccone! The Italian from Lidl-Trek won the Clásica San Sebastián on similar roads. His form appears to be declining in the second week, as he has already lost a significant amount of time to Vingegaard. However, this course suits him perfectly. The same goes for Tom Pidcock (Q36.5), who appears to be improving steadily. Guys like Jai Hindley (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), and Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers) can also handle these kinds of stages.

As for the GC contenders, Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Matthew Riccitello (Israel - Premier Tech), and Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) should not be underestimated. But what if there is a breakaway? Then we can look to the expected names such as Marc Soler, Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), Marco Frigo (Israel - Premier Tech), Kevin Vermaerke (Picnic PostNL), and Harold Tejada (XDS-Astana).

But because we are in the Basque Country, we also have to take into account the unexpected names that have specifically targeted this stage. A home rider like Xabier Mikel Azparren (Q36.5) will undoubtedly want to show himself in the breakaway. We can also expect Spaniards like Pablo Castrillo (Movistar) and Jesús Herrada (Cofidis), but keep an eye on Mikel Landa in particular. The Basque rider from Soudal Quick-Step has lost enough ground in the GC to go all out for a stage win. Why not now?  

Top favorites: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Outsiders: Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), João Almeida, Juan Ayuso (both UAE Team Emirates - XRG), Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) and Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step)
Long shots: Marc Soler (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), Pablo Castrillo (Movistar), Marco Frigo, Matthew Riccitello (both Israel - Premier Tech), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers), Jai Hindley (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Kevin Vermaerke (Picnic PostNL)