Favorites stage 14 Tour de France 2025 | Pogacar could complete masterful hat trick tomorrow

We start on Saturday in Pau, a city of about 80,000 inhabitants. The Tour has often visited this southern French city: after Paris and Bordeaux, it is the most visited city on the route. This is the 76th time that a stage has been held here. The riders will head southeast towards the Pyrenees, with an intermediate sprint just before that. After 70 kilometers, it will be in Esquièze-Sère.

From there, it's time for the legendary Col du Tourmalet. We will tackle the famous climb from the Luz-Saint-Sauveur side, the same side as last year and also the same side as in 2019, when Thibaut Pinot won magnificently. The gradients are between 6 and 8%, but it is the length of 19 kilometers that will determine the difficulty of this climb. Just before the summit are the most challenging sections, after which the riders plunge into the descent towards Sainte-Marie-de-Campan.

Once there, the road surface starts to climb again. This is the run-up to the Col d'Aspin, which, at 5 kilometers at 7.6%, will also feel quite challenging. The first part of this climb is the hardest, after which the gradients ease off a little towards the top.

After a winding descent and a valley of about 10 kilometers, the riders arrive at the next climb. The Col de Peyresourde is a fairly challenging climb, with 7.1 kilometers at an average gradient of 7.8%. We know this climb from the time trial the day before, but the end is slightly different. Where we turn right for the Col de Peyragudes in the final kilometer, we continue straight ahead for the Col de Peyresourde.

The riders don't have much time after the descent, because the road of the final climb starts going uphill again almost immediately. The climb to Luchon-Superbagnères returns to the Tour for the first time since 1989, when Brit Robbert Millar won. While the gradients tend to dip below 6% at the start of the climb, this is no longer the case in the second part. The climb features numerous hairpin bends, but the last kilometer is not only steep but also fairly straightforward.

The sunny weather in France seems to be gradually disappearing, with even a small chance of rain in Pau on Saturday morning. With a westerly wind, which will be behind the riders for most of the day, the temperature is expected to rise to around 24 degrees Celsius. On the cols, it will be a lot colder and it could well rain, as weather forecasts indicate a 40% chance of precipitation.

It is clear that Tadej Pogacar is the best climber in this Tour. The Slovenian from UAE Emirates-XRG has a comfortable lead in the GC and seems to be head and shoulders above the competition. If UAE Emirates-XRG wants to control the race with an eye on stage success, it is clear that Pogi is the top favorite.

Behind him, Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) has almost always finished second so far. The Dane does not seem to be at the level of the world champion, but he appears to be significantly better than the rest of the competition. The question is, of course, how he will recover from the first two tough days in the Pyrenees.

Behind the two leaders, it appears to be an exciting battle for third place. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) seemed to have the best chance for a while, but with Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), and Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL) hot on his heels, especially after his less-than-perfect time trial, the Belgian is facing stiff competition.

It is doubtful whether riders such as Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hangrohe), Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X), and Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) will get a chance from the big favorites. From Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike) onwards, that may well be the case. From the same perspective, Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers), Guillaume Martin (Groupama-FDJ), and Enric Mas (Movistar) could also give it a try. The latter has already indicated that he will shift his focus to stage wins after dropping out of the GC on day twelve.

Should UAE decide to let the early breakaway go, it will be time to watch out for the strong climbers again. Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers) has already shown good legs in this Tour, but he was beaten by Simon Yates (Visma | Lease a Bike), who, given the current situation, could well go for his second stage win.

Men such as Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Cristián Rodriguez (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), Sergio Higuita (XDS Astana), Santiago Buitrago, Lenny Martinez (both Bahrain Victorious), Steff Cras (TotalEnergies), Pablo Castrillo, Einer Rubio (both Movistar), Lennert van Eetvelt (Lotto), and Michael Storer (Tudor) are all men who could try their luck from the breakaway.

Top favorite: Tadej Pogacar (UAE Emirates-XRG)