Favorites stage 21 Tour de France 2025 | Champs-Élysées parade with a twist: Who will conquer Montmartre?

We start on Sunday in Mantes-la-Ville, a small town west of Paris. There, the riders will set off for the last 132.3 kilometers of this Tour. As we are heading towards the capital, the riders will cycle eastwards in the early phase.

Soon, after less than ten kilometers, the first climb of the day follows: the Côte de Bazemont (1.7 kilometers at 7%). Once at the top, the riders will continue on a plateau, after which there is another climb before entering the capital. That is the Côte du Pavé des Gardes, 700 meters at an average gradient of 9.7%. After a short descent, the riders will enter the final circuit in Paris.

There are actually two final laps, which the riders must complete three times in total. The first is 6.8 kilometers long and presents no difficulties. The riders will therefore cross the finish line on the Champs-Élysées three times. 700 meters after passing the finish line for the third time, the intermediate sprint will take place.

After that intermediate sprint, the riders will turn right onto the local lap, where they previously went straight ahead three times. They will turn right towards the much-discussed climb to Montmartre, which we are familiar with from last year's Olympic Games. The climb is 1.1 kilometers long with an average gradient of 5.9% and is expected to create a very different dynamic than we are used to in the “champagne stage” in Paris. The riders will have to tackle this climb three times.

The top of the final climb to Montmartre is just over six kilometers from the finish, after which it will be a fast ride to the finish line. After a short chicane, we turn left twice, followed by a sharp left turn with about 2.7 kilometers to go. After a slight right turn, the riders arrive at the red flame, followed by one more right turn. The last 700 meters are therefore straight ahead, on the famous Champs-Élysées.

In Paris, the temperature is expected to reach around 24 degrees Celsius on Sunday, but later in the afternoon, showers are likely to occur over the French capital. So we could well have a wet finale to this Tour, with a light north wind.

Predicting the final stage in and around Paris: normally, we would do this by listing the sprinters who managed to reach the French capital. However, with the addition of the climb to Montmartre, the balance has shifted somewhat, meaning that attackers could still strike on the last day of the Tour.

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) has unfortunately already gone home, but with Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek), and Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor), there are still plenty of attackers left who have already shown their legs several times in this Tour de France. The climb is certainly not long, but it is pretty explosive, which means that these gentlemen may well have their sights set on the stage.

Men such as Axel Laurance (INEOS Grenadiers), Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), and Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) should also give it a try on this terrain. And how much does Jhonatan Narváez still have left in his legs? The man from Ecuador can finish pretty fast and should have no trouble with the few meters of elevation. Teammate Tadej Pogacar hinted after stage 19 that he might have his sights set on victory on the Champs-Élysées, so we're definitely mentioning the soon-to-be winner of this Tour.

Jasper Stuyven (Lidl-Trek), Marc Hirschi (Tudor), Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost), Magnus Cort (Uno-X), Alex Aranburu (Cofidis)... These are all names that could win from a small group or even a significantly depleted peloton.

Of course, the sprinters will also be pulling out all the stops on Sunday to ensure that it ‘just’ comes down to a sprint. Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) appears to be the biggest contender, alongside Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step). For Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), the Tour has not really been a success so far, but the altitude meters before a sprint could prove to be to his advantage.

Also hoping to survive are Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Arnaud De Lie (Lotto), Pavel Bittner (Picnic PostNL), and Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious). For sprinters such as Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla), Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech), Paul Penhoët (Groupama-FDJ), Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), and Arnaud Démare (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), it appears to be a more challenging task on paper.  

Top favorites: Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek)
Outsiders: Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step), Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek), Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor), Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates - XRG) 
Long-shots: Pascal Ackermann (Israel - Premier Tech), Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Ben Healy (EF Education - EasyPost), Axel Laurance (INEOS Grenadiers), Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), Jasper Stuyven (Lidl-Trek) and Neilson Powless (EF Education - EasyPost)