Favorites stage 5 Tour de France | Can Van der Poel keep yellow on Evenepoel's big day?

The riders have already been put through plenty in the first four days, so most of them will be happy to spend a day going full gas on the big chainrings on their own. The time trial from Caen to Caen is no easy task, at 33 kilometers with a constantly rolling course, it’s a real challenge. Big time gaps can open up here if you’re having an off day.

The stage starts and finishes in the same spot, and it’s worth noting that the first and last 5 kilometers twist and turn through Caen. No room here for the big chainrings just yet, only after 5 slightly uphill kilometers does the course open up as it blasts towards Cambes-en-Plaine, where the first intermediate time check is located. After just three right-angle turns, the second intermediate check comes in Thaon, following a fast, slightly downhill section.

In fact, the second part of the time trial is pretty identical to the first, just in reverse. The road again gently rises at times (up to around 2–3 percent) towards the final intermediate checkpoint in Gruchy, before twisting and turning back into Caen. Of the 33 kilometers, 29.7 are flat, and with just 156 meters of elevation gain, it’s going to be a big-ring kind of day. Good luck, climbers!

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Times
Start: 1:10 PM local time | 7:10 AM EST (first rider)
Finish: 5:42 PM local time | 11:42 AM EST (last rider)

You can find the specific starting times here:

A glorious day awaits the riders in France on Wednesday. With bright sunshine, temperatures will climb to around 23 degrees Celsius. The wind won’t play too much of a role, blowing moderately from the northeast. This means riders will face a slight headwind in the first part, before enjoying a tailwind as they power toward the finish.

Stage 5 of the Tour de France might just be the most important day for Remco Evenepoel in this year’s Tour de France. The Belgian from Soudal-Quick Step wants to finish on the final podium again, just like last year. If he really believes he’s closer to Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) on the climbs, then as world and Olympic time trial champion, he has a chance to gain – or claw back – time. Evenepoel is already nearly three-quarters of a minute behind the magical duo...

Pogacar and Vingegaard are also favorites for the stage win, with the Dane from Visma having outperformed his Slovenian rival in the Critérium du Dauphiné. Over a course of just under 18 kilometers, Vingegaard lost 20 seconds to Evenepoel back then, while Pogacar conceded 48. The rider who slotted in between them in third place was Matteo Jorgenson, also from Visma. How well will the American perform here for his own general classification ambitions?

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While there was some climbing in the Dauphiné time trial, that won’t be the case on Wednesday. This means the true power riders will have the advantage. Filippo Ganna has already left the race, Stefan Küng isn’t riding the Tour, and Joshua Tarling rode the Giro. So who will challenge Evenepoel? Perhaps Edoardo Affini, the European champion representing Visma. Mauro Schmid is the Swiss time trial champion for Jayco-AlUla, and Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) wears the French champion’s jersey.

Mattia Cattaneo and German champion Maximilian Schachmann also normally ride superb time trials on behalf of Soudal-Quick Step, but both men hit the ground in stage 4 on Tuesday. Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X Mobility), Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), Luke Plapp (Jayco-AlUla), Iván Romeo(Movistar) and the INEOS Grenadiers quartet Geraint Thomas, Tobias Foss, Thymen Arensman and Samuel Watson are speedsters we are sure to write down on our list. 

We’re also watching the GC contenders, who will try to challenge the top three favorites, at least on paper. Primoz Roglic and Florian Lipowitz can usually hold their own for Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, Pogacar has UAE’s time trial specialist João Almeida alongside him, and Ben O'Connor has significantly improved in this discipline in recent years, also riding for Jayco-AlUla. And finally, what can Mathieu van der Poel in yellow and Wout van Aert do against these specialists? We’re eager to find out!

Top favorites: Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Outsiders: Tadej Pogacar (UAE Emirates-XRG), Primoz Roglic, Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), Luke Plapp (Jayco-Alula) and Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels)
Long shots: Edoardo Affini, Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), João Almeida (UAE Emirates-XRG),(Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla), Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Mattia Cattaneo and Maximilian Schachmann (Soudal-Quick Step), Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X Mobility), Iván Romeo (Movistar), Geraint Thomas, Tobias Foss, Thymen Arensman and Samuel Watson (INEOS Grenadiers)