Favorites stage 9 Giro d'Italia 2025 | Where Pogacar once crashed, the Giro peloton now races by

Tuscany, the shining centerpiece of Italy! In March during Strade Bianche, the neon green grass blades are just starting to peek through, but now in May, they’re slowly starting to turn yellow as summer approaches. The TV director will feel the pressure, because in this region every street corner is stunning.

We don’t start in Tuscany just yet, but in the province of Perugia in Gubbio, in Umbria. From there, the route goes via La Cima, a third-category climb, past Sinalunga to San Giovanni d’Asso. This is already part of the Siena province in Tuscany, but before we reach the city of Siena, the gravel riding begins.

Between San Giovanni d’Asso and Buonconvento, we hit sector 1: 8 kilometers of rolling white roads. The climb in this sector is already 1.9 kilometers long at an average of 5.3%. Good for building tension, but normally not enough to blow the race apart.

Once we leave Buonconvento, sector 2 follows, with a length of 9.3 kilometers. Extra caution is needed here, because not only does the sector start uphill, but the descent is extremely steep. A great place to attack, because after this relatively flat section, we immediately hit sector 3: another 9.3 kilometers, ending with a fourth-category climb.

It’s not the Monte Sante Marie sector from Strade Bianche, but with climbs of 7, 8 and 9%, it’s a technically demanding stretch. The summit of San Martino in Grania is reached 35 kilometers from the finish, and we expect the race to already be splitting up there.

After this, we race at full speed toward the now-familiar entrance to the final loop of Strade Bianche. After Monteaperti, we turn right onto a steep gravel climb followed by an extremely steep paved wall. We then pass the descent where Tadej Pogacar once flew into the bushes, and turn right again onto the Colle Pinzuto: the first 440 meters kick up to over 11%!

Unlike in Strade Bianche, after the Colle Pinzuto sector, we turn left and skip Le Tolfe. The white roads are done, but the route to Siena remains extremely tough with lots of ups and downs. We finish traditionally on the Piazza del Campo, with the familiar steep final climb to the square: steep and perfect for a final punch!

Start: 1:05 PM local time (7:05 AM EDT)

Finish: around 5:12 PM local time (11:12 AM EDT)

Wet gravel roads or dry ones? The start in Gubbio will likely be dry, but rain is expected after the riders roll out. The afternoon looks to bring mixed weather, with both sunshine and a chance of showers. So, it won’t be a dust-fest, but we’re also not necessarily expecting mud-soaked sectors. Around the finish in Siena, the weather will likely clear up — but by then, the damage may have already been done...

Stages like this are traditionally a hunting ground for breakaway riders. Because general classification contenders are focused on time gaps rather than stage wins, this opens the door for riders who don’t pose a big GC threat but could still fight for the win.

Tom Pidcock is our top favorite. The runner-up in this year’s Strade Bianche will have this stage marked in red, especially since he lost some time to the GC riders on Friday and is now 1 minute and 27 seconds behind Diego Ulissi’s pink jersey. The risks he’s willing to take for a stage win are ones most GC contenders will avoid. The same likely applies to the incredibly strong Mathias Vacek of Lidl-Trek, who at 1:34 back is also a semi-threat to pink.

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Romain Bardet has also finished second once before on the Piazza del Campo, and he’s on our radar with Picnic-PostNL. The Frenchman crashed in stage 7 and was active again on day 8, so it’s a bit uncertain how he’s feeling. Another former runner-up from Strade Bianche? Davide Formolo, in 2020. The Italian is regularly in the top ten in March and could go on the attack for Movistar. Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) is another Strade specialist. Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) could handle this too, but after several tough days in pink, he may be tired. Plus, the constant up and down doesn’t suit him perfectly.

There are even more specialists in the mix. How about 2020 winner Wout van Aert? Can the Belgian from Visma | Lease a Bike find his winning legs again? Filippo Zana is a former top ten finisher with Jayco-AlUla, and this year Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) was very present in the Strade Bianche finale. Kasper Asgreen (EF) and Diego Ulissi (Astana) are also skilled on gravel. The Italian, wearing the newly earned pink jersey, will have extra motivation.

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Among the attackers who’ve already shown good form in week 1: Paul Double (Jayco-AlUla), Nicolas Prodhomme (Decathlon), Wilco Kelderman (Visma), and Astana duo Christian Scaroni and Lorenzo Fortunato. Other riders to watch: Mattia Cattaneo (Quick Step), Quinten Hermans (Alpecin), Florian Stork (Tudor), and Milan Vader (Q36.5).

Then there are the GC riders, who might still battle for the win if the gaps stay small. Egan Bernal (INEOS), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), and Isaac Del Toro (UAE) are comfortable on gravel. For Primoz Roglic (Red Bull), Juan Ayuso and Adam Yates (UAE), Michael Storer (Tudor), Simon Yates (Visma), Max Poole (Picnic), Richard Carapaz (EF), Derek Gee (Israel), and Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain), it will be interesting to see how they handle the terrain.

Top favorites: Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) and Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious)
Outsiders: Mathias Vacek and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Romain Bardet (Picnic-PostNL), Davide Formolo (Movistar), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Juan Ayuso and Isaac Del Toro (UAE) and Egan Bernal (INEOS)
Long shots: Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon), Mads Pedersen (Lidl)-Trek), Mattia Cattaneo (Soudal Quick-Step), Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Diego Ulissi (XDS Astana)