Giro d'Italia 2026 Stage 16 Preview | Will pink Vingegaard stay true to his word?

Two thrilling weeks of racing in Italy, only one to go! The legs will be somewhat rested, but the final week kicks off immediately with a beautiful mountain stage. The legs will need to get used to the high mountains in the cold, even though it is not the toughest stage of the Giro. Does that mean it isn't more of a stage for the breakaways? IDL Pro Cycling lines up the favorites.

We rest after the sprint stage in Milan. A well-earned break for a battle-worn peloton — but the hard work resumes immediately after. A very short stage awaits, just 113 kilometres: the shortest stage of this Giro d'Italia. Don't be fooled, though. Five climbs stand between the riders and the finish, topped off with a brutally stubborn finale.

The start, as on almost every day of this Giro, is on flat roads — this time from Bellinzona. The entire day's racing takes place in Switzerland; not a metre of Italian tarmac on Tuesday. Heading north, the first climb appears after roughly 30 kilometres, up to Torre. This marks the beginning of a hilly middle section featuring two laps of a circuit around Roccabella. After the climb to Torre, a false-flat descent leads into the next climb.

That next climb is the one to Leontica. It is no pushover. Beautiful hairpin bends packed into just three kilometres, averaging 8.5%, with ramps up to 14%. The descent is relatively technical, and the riders tackle it twice. After the second passage, there are still around 50 kilometres to the finish. The road trends downhill for a long stretch before it begins to rise gently around 25 kilometres from the line.

The real final climb doesn't begin until Faido, close to the Gotthard Tunnel. This is also where the Red Bull kilometre sits, offering a handful of time bonuses. From there, it is 11.7 kilometres of climbing at an average of 7.9% — another spectacular ascent, with no fewer than seventeen hairpin bends and stunning views. The riders, however, will have little time to admire the scenery.

The climb is relentless — truly relentless. The first 7.7 kilometres average 8.3%. Never brutally steep, but never easy. After a few hundred metres at around 2%, the road kicks back up at 8.3% for the final stretch, with the steepest ramp topping out at 13%.

Times
Start: 14:00 CET (1pm GMT)
Finish: around 17:00 CET (4pm GMT)

As in the days before in Italy, Switzerland will bring oppressive heat — up to 32 degrees, with no rain expected, at least not at the start. At the finish in Carì, the altitude should bring slightly cooler conditions, around 22 degrees, and there is a chance of a brief shower at the top.

The key question will be whether the GC contenders feel like racing so soon after the rest day. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) said: "Now we don't need to attack anymore. Now we can ride a bit more defensively." That may well be true — but if the big names suddenly decide to battle for the stage win, will he really let an opportunity slip? If so, he is the outright favourite to settle accounts with his rivals.

His nearest competition comes primarily from Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM), who has finished second at every uphill finish so far. Men like Jai Hindley, Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Davide Piganzoli li (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Thymen Arensman (Netcompany-INEOS) could also put in a performance on a good day.

That said, given the circumstances, our attention turns more towards the breakaway. The climbers who aren't in the GC fight have not had any luck yet, but their day must come eventually. Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) has been chasing a stage win for well over two weeks now. This looks like an ideal opportunity for him.

It won't come easily, though. Movistar, who have so far gone without a win, will throw everything at the stage with Enric Mas and Einer Rubio. The familiar names will be there too — riders who have been in the break before: Wout Poels (Unibet Rose Rockets), Jan Hirt (NSN), Igor Arrieta (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Jarди Christiaan van der Lee (EF Education-EasyPost).

At the American squad EF Education-EasyPost, Markel Beloki has dropped out of GC contention. If the youngster has the legs, he is now free to slip into the breakaway. We also expect riders like Josh Kench (Groupama-FDJ) and Ludovico Crescioli (Polti VisitMalta) to try their luck, though they will normally be outgunned by the bigger names.

Favorite: Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)
Outsiders: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike), Enric Mas (Movistar), Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM) and Wout Poels (Unibet Rose Rockets)
Long shots: Jai Hindley, Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Jan Hirt (NSN), Igor Arrieta (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Einer Rubio (Movistar), Markel Beloki and Jardi Christiaan van der Lee (EF Education-EasyPost)