'He has only had 28 race days'; will Roglič's Vuelta approach really work to his advantage?

In just over a week, the Vuelta a España will get underway. Tadej Pogacar will be on the starting line in Monaco and is therefore immediately the top favorite to win the overall title, but Netcompany INEOS and Decathlon CMA CGM may well be the two most prominent challengers. Sports directors Geraint Thomas and Luke Rowe discussed the upcoming Vuelta on their latest podcast, specifically what we can expect from him Primož Roglič.

Pogačar hesitated for a long time about committing to the 2026 Vuelta, but after his fifth victory in the Tour de France, he finally agreed to participate. He’s aiming for his first overall victory in Spain. “It was the big news: is he going, or isn’t he? Now we know for sure he’ll be there. It was the worst-kept secret, just like when I decided to retire,” Thomas laughs on his podcast, Watts Occurring.

The Slovenian has a strong chance of winning his first red jersey. His compatriot Roglič has already won the race four times and has long set his sights on a fifth victory: it would make him the sole record holder, surpassing Roberto Heras. However, the Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe climber was hit by a car while training this month, and it is still uncertain whether he will be able to start.

Crash or no crash, Thomas doubts whether Roglič could even compete at a high level in the Vuelta. “He’s past his peak—how well will he do? I’m not sure. It’ll be interesting. He’s been targeting this race all year. That’s good, because the favorites starting in the Vuelta have either already ridden a Grand Tour or dropped out of one. There aren’t many riders who really have the Vuelta as their main goal.”

Rowe, team director at Decathlon CMA CGM, sees the wisdom in his friend Thomas’s words. Roglič is one of the few riders who has specifically prepared for the Vuelta. “Your guy, Oscar Onley, was supposed to ride the Tour but crashed and is now heading to the Vuelta. Our guy, Felix Gall, has already ridden the Giro and is now heading to the Vuelta. Pogačar rode the Tour and is here now.”

Still, the Welshman sees a major risk in his approach. “If you crash in the Vuelta, there’s no Plan B. Roglič has only had 28 race days this year. And he’s not the Roglič we’ve seen in previous years. He’s still solid, and if he sets his sights on something, he’ll be in the mix. But Pogačar’s level? He’s a long way from it, I think.”

Other top riders such as Remco Evenepoel, Jonas Vingegaard, Isaac Del Toro, Paul Seixas, Juan Ayuso, and Giulio Pellizzari will not be competing in the Vuelta, leaving little competition for Pogačar. An open battle is expected for the two remaining podium spots, but Netcompany INEOS and Decathlon CMA CGM have two very strong contenders in Onley and Gall.

The Austrian won the Tour of Burgos, while Onley won a stage and finished second. It was his first race since a crash in the Tour Auvergne–Rhône-Alpes. “It couldn’t have gone much better, could it?” Thomas exclaims. “Well, we could have beaten your guy, Gall. But it was great to see him win a stage and finish second overall. It was a fantastic week for him—and for the team.”

Gall really broke through this year as a general classification rider with a second-place finish in the Giro d'Italia. He then took a two-month break: he returned at the Clásica de San Sebastián, and followed that up with a strong performance in Burgos. “That was his first victory in a general classification,” says Rowe. “You know him as a solid general classification rider, and you’d expect him to have already had some success.”