Headwind on the Cipressa may hurt Pogacar — but does it really favour Van der Poel?

Attacking on the Cipressa — wasn’t that supposed to be forbidden territory? If you really wanted to win Milan-Sanremo, the unwritten rule said you had to wait for the Poggio. But Pogacar does not care much for unwritten rules, and together with Van der Poel and Filippo Ganna he helped produce one of the finest editions of La Primavera in recent memory by making his move on the Cipressa. The Dutchman proved strongest in the end, but the world champion looks set to try it again.

But if he wants to drop Van der Poel on the penultimate climb, he will need the wind to cooperate. Last year that was the case, but this time it appears to be different. From the foot of the Cipressa in San Lorenzo al Mare, the wind is expected to be mostly head-on, at least judging by the forecast on the eve of the race. That is not ideal for Pogacar and UAE Team Emirates-XRG.

With a headwind, a rider sitting on a wheel gains even more benefit than usual, especially on a climb that is not overly steep like the Cipressa. So if the Slovenian is the one riding into the wind, Van der Poel may be able to stay seated and follow more comfortably. And because the race continues along the coast in a south-westerly direction, the Poggio should also be ridden into a headwind. A solo attack suddenly becomes much harder in those conditions.

So that clearly plays into Van der Poel’s hands, right? Well, maybe not entirely. A significant headwind could also mean we end up with a very different race altogether. If Pogacar cannot create a gap, the whole scenario could change and the chasers may be able to return to the seemingly unbeatable top favourites.

Pogacar and Van der Poel seemed to have rewritten the rules of Sanremo in the last edition, but do not be surprised if a larger group is once again in contention on Saturday. Sprinting riders who can climb well, such as Jasper Philipsen, Matthew Brennan and Tobias Lund Andresen, will be delighted by a headwind on the Cipressa. For them, it opens the door to beating the two riders many see as untouchable.

But there is more at play than the wind alone. UAE Team Emirates-XRG have built their line-up entirely around Pogacar, and Isaac del Toro could yet prove an important factor. If he keeps driving on over the Cipressa, who will be able to follow? The forecast is only for a force-three wind, so it is not especially strong. Will UAE’s superiority still be enough to force a split? We will find out on Saturday.