"He’s just bait," the verdict in the Visma vs. UAE battle: "The only rider who can really trouble Pogacar"

These two teams faced each other in almost every stage, if not in the battle for the stage win, then in positioning their two leaders (Tadej Pogacar for UAE and Jonas Vingegaard for Visma) at the front. The fierce battle between the two teams is not always friendly, as this Tour has already shown.

The tenth stage, the day before the first rest day, also provided fuel for discussion. “I think UAE were pushing far too hard,” said Bruyneel in the podcast The Move, about the moment when Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) attacked and eventually took the yellow jersey from Pogacar. "I would’ve let it go. There was no reason to keep pulling. Even if Ben Healy had taken yellow with a five or even ten-minute lead, that would’ve made the next few stages easier for them. Instead, they rode aggressively and lost the jersey by a small margin. In my view, they overcooked it and Pogačar ended up isolated as a result."

Bruyneel went on to suggest that deliberately giving up yellow could have worked to UAE's advantage: “If they’d let Healy go ten minutes up the road, it would’ve been ideal. EF Education would’ve had to take responsibility over the next few stages, including at Hautacam. Even if Healy didn’t ship all the time back right away, EF would still be doing the work.”

Former cyclist George Hincapie spoke about a "psychologically significant day for Visma | Lease a Bike" in a podcast. "Mentally, it was a huge win for them. Sepp Kuss was brilliant, Jorgenson was phenomenal, and they got the stage win. That’ll boost morale." Bruyneel agreed that Visma's ability to isolate Pogacar could prove crucial as the race progresses: "They’ve shown they can distance him from his team. They’ll be looking to do that again soon."

But not everyone on the panel was convinced. Bradley Wiggins expressed frustration with Visma’s tactical cohesion—or lack thereof: “They’re the strongest team in the race, and they’ve made it clear since Stage 1 in Lille that they’re here to race aggressively,” said Wiggins. “But I don’t think they’re using their strength wisely. Stage 10 felt disorganised to me. Yes, they won the stage, which relieves some pressure, but if they don’t win the Tour, how many stage wins are enough to avoid calling it a failure?”

Armstrong, also present in his podcast, believes the race is steadily heading toward a familiar duel. “It's going to be a one-on-one duel,” he said. "Watch Pogačar’s acceleration in the final kilometre—seated, explosive, like he was changing the channel on Netflix. There’s only one rider in the peloton who knows what it takes to follow that: Jonas. He’s the one who matters. He’s the one who’ll decide whether Visma wins the Tour or just ends up on the podium.“

At Kop over Kop, Eurosport commentator Jan Hermsen is not yet ready to draw any firm conclusions about the difference between Pogacar and Vingegaard after the first week of the Tour. "You can't make any assessments after this week because you don't know what this week has done to Pogacar. You'll only see that in the third week. Visma's deficit is, of course, more than they had hoped for. But they're not in a bad position."

Analyst Bobbie Traksel agrees. "The team is good; it's the most balanced team. That's a big advantage over Pogacar. But that time trial was a disaster. People are already joking about Vingegaard clinging to Pogacar's rear wheel, just as they did last year. But now he has to make the difference when it should have been made in the time trial, so that's a real setback."

These men also noticed remarkable behavior from the UAE team in the tenth stage. “Pogacar needs to be willing to take more risks. When Evenepoel went, if I were Pogacar, I would have let him go and see what Visma | Lease a Bike would do,” said Traksel. “That's interesting because, as Pogacar, you're there for him, but Vingegaard, in particular, needs to watch him. If I were Pogacar, I would have watched what Visma | Lease a Bike thinks of Remco Evenepoel.”

Matteo Jorgenson managed to throw Pogacar off balance several times on behalf of Visma | Lease a Bike. Bruyneel sees an important role for the American. “The only rider from Visma who can really trouble him is Jorgenson. Kuss and Yates can’t do it. The danger is if Pogačar gets isolated and something goes wrong—a puncture, or needing to fetch bottles in the high mountains. Strategically, that’s more of a concern than strength. Because in terms of raw power, no one touches him.”

In the podcast In de Waaier, Thijs Zonneveld also sees how the Dutch team is using Jorgenson. "It's clear that they want to keep Jorgenson within reach so that Pogacar continues to react to him. Jorgenson is really weaker on the climbs. If the race gets really tough, he'll lose minutes. If Vingegaard goes with the breakaway, they'll already be riding Jorgenson minutes behind. And they want Pogacar to keep reacting."

“They're going to try this a hundred times,” Zonneveld predicts, continuing about Jorgenson's attacks. “UAE isn't handling it very well. If the wind changes or Pogacar is in the wrong position, he'll have to chase after him on his own. That's what Visma wants. Let him react. It's also a bit of a bait."

Zonneveld sees similarities with previous Tours, where the Roglic/Vingegaard duo was used to challenge Pogacar. "They've already fallen into Roglic's trap once at UAE. I'm curious to see if they'll make the same mistake. But Jorgenson isn't as good as Roglic. So he's really just bait." Former cyclist Jip van den Bos adds: "But you can't give him minutes because he's too dangerous for that. They have to respond."

“And Visma knows that UAE knows that,” Zonneveld continues. “That's why they keep attacking behind those groups. They try every time UAE does too much, and Pogacar does too much. That's the tactical game being played, and it's fun to watch. Still, I think Pogacar's physical superiority is so great that it's not going to happen, but that makes it more fun.”