Il Lombadria Strava analysis shows 2026 Paul Seixas outshines 2022 Tadej Pogačar on the Civiglio

On Saturday, Pogacar had to watch helplessly as Seixas put an end to his streak of five consecutive victories in the Tour of Lombardy. The Slovenian crashed in August during the Vuelta a España and, due to the aftermath of his crash following the World and European Championships, also missed his beloved Il Lombardia.

Those who were hoping for a thrilling battle in Pogacar’s absence were left disappointed. Seixas pulled away from the other favorites on the Civiglio and crossed the finish line in Como alone. We’d almost say he did it “Tadej-style.”

We’ll never know if Seixas could have kept up with a strong and fit Pogacar in Lombardy. Earlier this year, the now 20-year-old Frenchman was clearly outclassed by the superstar—who is eight years his senior—at Strade Bianche and Liège–Bastogne–Liège.

There’s no doubt, however, that Seixas rode hard on Saturday. The Decathlon CMA CGM climber broke the Strava record on the Civiglio, which had been held since 2022 by... Pogacar! And not by a small margin, either. Seixas rode the climb—divided into two Strava segments—much faster than he did four years ago.

On the first 2.89 kilometers at a 10.3 percent grade—known as“Como (via Zezio) Civiglio/Brunate junction”—Seixas climbed in 8 minutes and 45 seconds, averaging 19.8 kilometers per hour. Pogacar did the same in 2022 in 9 minutes and 9 seconds, at 19 per hour. Difference: 24 seconds.

The final stretch of Civiglio has also been measured on Strava, though there is some overlap, since the“Civiglio 2a parte” segment is 2.24 kilometers long and the entire Civiglio is only 4.2 kilometers. Still, on this segment with an average gradient of 10.8 percent, Seixas was faster than Pogacar in 2022.

Four years ago, the Slovenian rode up the climb in 7 minutes and 29 seconds; Seixas did it 21 seconds faster on Saturday. Velon had the exact times for the entire climb: Seixas completed the Civiglio in 11:54, while Pogacar did it in 12:32 in 2022. That’s a difference of 38 seconds.

We’ll never know whether Seixas could have held his own against the current Pogacar. In 2022, the Slovenian—and the entire cycling world—wasn’t as fast as it would be four years later, but he was also already four years older than Seixas is now. It’s telling, however, that Giulio Ciccone was also a few seconds faster on the first section of the Civiglio than Pogacar was in 2022.

In any case, Domestique converted the climb times to watts per kilogram and calculated an average of 7.1 watts per kilogram for Seixas. The publication claims that the Frenchman had already recorded 7.5 watts per kilogram for 16 minutes earlier this year, meaning he wasn’t even at his absolute best on Saturday.

Bring on that Pogačar vs. Seixas showdown in 2027...