Pogacar vs. Evenepoel: Round 2 at the European Championships? Strava data suggest the Slovenian could be in for a fight in France

First of all, Pogacar's hegemony must be emphasized. On Mount Kigali, he pushed hard; then, 66 kilometers from the finish, he dropped his last companion, Isaac Del Toro. In the long lap, which included Mont Kigali, he outpaced almost everyone. This is evident from the data: on Strava, Pogacar shows that he was 23 seconds faster than Evenepoel on the middle section of that climb.

He also pushed much harder than the rest on the final section. With a time of 3:05, he was 18 seconds faster than Ben Healy, Paul Seixas, and Giulio Ciccone. Evenepoel had to concede almost half a minute there. After the descent, the Slovenian rode in Del Toro's wheel up the Mur de Kigali: he blasted up this nasty climb in 1:20 minutes, 25 seconds faster than his Belgian rival.

The difference had already been made, but after the bike changes, Evenepoel managed to fight his way back. This can be seen in the data collected by cycling follower ammattipyöräily: no one rode a lap faster than Evenepoel did in the fifth-to-last lap. That came just after he had made his last change: he completed the 15.4-kilometer circuit in 19.45 minutes, a whopping 38 seconds faster than Pogacar, who set his fastest time in the same lap with 20.23 minutes.

However, the Slovenian's consistency is impressive. Except for his last lap, he completed every lap in times between 20:23 and 21:01. Evenepoel fluctuated more, with his slowest lap being 21:36. However, that was the lap with the bike change: after that, the Belgian picked up his pace.

And that was not a bad pace at all: in the fourth lap before the finish, he was six seconds slower than Pogacar, and in the third lap before the finish, he was 12 seconds slower. In the penultimate lap, the difference was only 7 seconds, after which the final lap was almost equal: 21:32 minutes to 21:34 minutes—a promising statistic, given the upcoming European Championships.

The course in the Ardèche is significantly less challenging than the one in Kigali, which may be an advantage for Evenepoel. After the race, national coach Serge Pauwels noted that the course in Rwanda was perhaps a little too challenging for his rider. With less bad luck, good legs, and a nice course, suddenly anything is possible in France...