Vingegaard surprises with European Championship participation, but is it a surprise? A look at the Dane’s record in the classics

Let's go back a few years, to when Vingegaard made his definitive breakthrough with Team Coloquick in 2018. This earned him a contract with Jumbo-Visma for the 2019 season. As a predominantly multi-day rider, the then 22-year-old arrived at the Killer Bees, although he had also competed in a few one-day races during his junior and U23 years.

This was also the case in his debut year for Jumbo-Visma. At the end of 2019, Vingegaard traveled to Canada for the Québec-Montréal diptych, where he finished 96th and 84th. Two Italian autumn races followed this. These would be Vingegaard's first four classics as a professional.

In 2020, a year turned upside down by COVID, the Dane also competed in some classics. In August, it was time for his first Monument with the Tour of Lombardy (DNF), followed immediately by his second with Liège-Bastogne-Liège (84th). He also competed in the Gran Piemonte (56th) and the Flèche Wallonne (71st) that year.

In the spring of 2021, the Dane ventured into the Ardennes again. He competed in the Amstel Gold Race (114th), the Flèche Wallonne (83rd), and Liège (28th), after which he also finished eighth in his debut in San Sebastian after the Tour. Via the Bretagne Classic (61st), he also competed in the Giro dell'Emilia (12th) and the Tour of Lombardy (14th) to round off the season.

In 2022, the year Vingegaard would win the Tour for the first time, he claimed his first classic victory. The Dane won the Drôme Classic, not entirely coincidentally, the region where the European Championships will be held this weekend. That year, he had DNFs in the two-part Flèche Wallonne-Liège and also finished sixteenth in the Tour of Lombardy.

From then on, one-day races became increasingly rare for Vingegaard. In 2023, he did not compete in any, and in 2024, he only competed in San Sebastian, where he did not finish. This means that Sunday's European Championship road race will be the Dane's first one-day race since August last year.

Experts, therefore, doubt Vingegaard's ability in classic races. Danish national coach Michael Mørkøv disagrees. “I don't really believe that theory. I think he has already performed remarkably well several times in the first stage of the races he has participated in. He has performed incredibly well there, and it's hard to argue that a first stage is not equivalent to a one-day race,” Mørkøv said earlier.

However, the numbers don't lie. So far, Vingegaard has competed in 22 one-day races, not counting (national) championships. He has won once: the Drôme Classic in February 2022. The Dane has recorded five DNFs, while apart from his victory, he has only managed to finish in the top 10 once more. That was in July 2021, when he finished eighth in San Sebastian.

Can Vingegaard challenge the statistics? We will find out on Sunday afternoon!