What should UAE do now that Ayuso is out and Del Toro has lost? Bruyneel explains: "They need to change their tactics"

During the grueling stage to San Valentino, Bruyneel noticed a clear pattern emerging. Riders like Isaac Del Toro and Egan Bernal lost significant time to their rivals. “The riders who’ve raced smart and saved their energy are now stepping up,” said the former team manager. Among those clever conservers are Michael Storer and Derek Gee, but above all, Richard Carapaz, who is now within just 30 seconds of the pink jersey.

The Ecuadorian is suddenly the top favorite to win the Giro. “Carapaz wasn’t one of the big favorites going into the race,” Bruyneel observed. “He came into the Giro in solid form, even if he didn’t stand out much at first. Then he launched one big attack, and I always say, if you attack, make it count. He won the stage and gained time. Things look really good for him. He’s gained a lot of time, and based on what I saw today, he’s now the main favorite to win the Giro.”

Of course, there are still three brutal mountain stages to come, starting with Wednesday’s stage to Bormio. Carapaz spent a lot of energy in the first stage after the rest day. “It’s possible he’ll have to pay for that in the upcoming stages,” says the 60-year-old former rider. But history shows that El Jaguar de Tulcán rarely fades late in a grand tour. “I expect him to stay at this level, if not get even stronger. That’s what he’s known for, and he’s already finished second or third in a grand tour multiple times.”

Alongside Carapaz, Derek Gee also impressed in the high mountains. He lost just 13 seconds to the EF Education–EasyPost rider and now sits fourth in the general classification. “I owe Derek Gee an apology because I didn’t believe in him,” Bruyneel admits. “I still don’t think he’s going to win, but he’s riding so strong. Today he wasn’t even in Carapaz’s wheel, and yet he lost very little time. He lost a minute in stage one, he really had a poor start.”

The first sign the Canadian had good legs came during Sunday’s stage. Gee had enough energy while climbing to pat a stuffed fox that a fan was holding. “Everyone else was on the limit, and he was joking around. That was already a sign to me that he had great legs.” Just ahead of Carapaz and Gee, Giulio Pellizzari crossed the line. The 21-year-old Italian now has free rein following Primoz Roglic’s withdrawal. “He’s going to keep climbing the standings, he’s in really good form. But he won’t win this Giro. I’d rather see him go for a stage victory.”

Del Toro may still be wearing the pink jersey, but things look far less promising than they did before the rest day. Juan Ayuso has crashed out of the general classification, and that changes everything, according to Bruyneel. “I think UAE’s tactics are going to change. They’ll need to be aggressive with other riders, either to win a stage or to exhaust the other teams.” And they'll have to do that without their Spanish leader. “I think we’re going to lose Ayuso. Now that he's out of the GC picture, it’s going to be mentally tough to bounce back. He came here to win the Giro, and I think up until this morning, he still believed he could.”

All of a sudden, the team's hopes rest on a 21-year-old Mexican who’s never had to defend a GC position in a Grand Tour. Del Toro lost significant time, but Bruyneel believes he can recover. “The day after a rest day is different, especially in the mountains. Some riders react differently, and that could explain it. I think his youth and fatigue are playing a role, but that can also work in his favor.”