Is Thymen Arensman going to lose the Giro podium battle to Hindley and Pellizzari?

Stage fourteen's brutal climbing exposed the true order in the general classification. Netcompany INEOS' Thymen Arensman felt the pressure from his biggest prodium rivals — Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe. And according to Dutch journalist Thijs Zonneveld, it's a fight Arensman could very well lose. He gave his analysis on the podcast Dutch-language podcasr In de Waaier.

The fourteenth stage reshuffled the overall standings significantly. Jonas Vingegaard won convincingly and looks set for his first Giro victory, while Felix Gall again impressed in the mountains. Behind those two, the battle is still very much alive. Ben O'Connor was another contender until Saturday's tough mountain stage, but the Australian lost considerable time and can likely put the podium out of his mind.

Zonneveld noticed the same. "There were four of them fighting for the podium behind Vingegaard and Gall, who are simply better in the mountains this Giro. O'Connor has dropped out of that group now — that's the good news for Arensman." But the analyst is not optimistic about his fellow Dutchman's prospects.

"Pellizzari and Hindley are just better climbers than Arensman, and the gap with Hindley in particular is closing too fast now," Zonneveld argues. "Those 40 seconds on Hindley and one minute twenty on Pellizzari look too slim given the current dynamics." On top of that, both Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe riders are recovering from illness and may only get stronger.

"Pellizzari feels very sorry for himself, but as the day goes on he realises it's not as bad as he thought. On the final climb he thinks: they're actually not that far. If you're really as ill as he says, you don't finish fifth in a stage like that. He might be missing just a tiny bit of that extra edge, but he's genuinely in very good shape," the analyst concludes.

"He doesn't think he's at his best, but he's riding really well. He does waste a lot of energy by constantly sitting at the back of the group and having to close gaps." According to Zonneveld, a dangerous development for Arensman is the partnership between the two co-leaders. "You could see on Saturday that together, Hindley and Pellizzari are a real threat to Arensman. They were riding as a proper team."

The fourteenth stage also featured a steady, regular final climb — the type that normally suits Arensman well. "If he's already losing too much time here, it will be very difficult given what's still to come. Stages 19 and 20 are incredibly hard. Arensman is simply heavier than Hindley, and you have to carry every extra kilogram over the mountains."

Despite his doubts about the Dutchman's podium chances, Zonneveld is full of praise for the Netcompany INEOS leader's form. "All in all, this is still the best Arensman we've ever seen. Even if he finishes fourth or fifth — but I think he's just losing a little too much. Hindley is now more on course for the podium than Arensman is, if nothing unexpected happens," he concludes.