Zonneveld points to Pogačar’s FTP to explain why Van der Poel is making the logical choice

The numbers alone already show that Pogačar is in a class of his own at Strade Bianche. He has won the last three editions, not coincidentally the editions in which the organisers extended the course beyond 200 kilometres with an additional finishing loop. But even on the more traditional route, Zonneveld believes Pogačar would normally still win with ease.

He reaches for the FTP Functional Threshold Power. “You have your FTP, the power you should be able to hold for an hour. We have always said that Pogačar rides below his FTP when he is sitting in the bunch and others are pulling on the front. But he is probably also riding below his FTP when he is alone on the front for two hours in Strade Bianche.”

And a rider who still has that much left, while everyone else is already deep in the red, will simply win very often when a race is hard enough. “If he were riding at his FTP, he would only be able to sustain that for a maximum of an hour. So Pogačar is not even riding at his FTP, while behind him there are ten or twelve guys attacking and rotating through, and they do not take back even a second. And those are not exactly ordinary riders!”

Paul Seixas and Isaac del Toro completed the podium, but the entire top ten was packed with big names. “I did see comments saying: if Gianni Vermeersch can finish fifth, then shouldn’t Van der Poel have ridden too? And what could he have done? But Van der Poel does not ride for second or third place — that is the only answer,” said Zonneveld.

“Could Van der Poel have won? No. Finished on the podium? Hmm, I am not even sure about that. Without Pogačar, maybe it becomes possible, because the race would then be more tactical and maybe you could anticipate somewhere. But now it is simply a matter of lining up behind that terrible UAE train. That changes the race and, although there is more climbing in the route, it is above all because of Pogačar that Van der Poel decides not to ride.”

According to the Dutch journalist, there is another factor as well: Van der Poel can climb very well, but only if he prepares specifically for it. “If you are such a great champion, you do not feel like losing two or three kilos for a race like Strade Bianche. He did that once for the World Championships in Zurich, where he finished third. But he is not going to do that in the weeks before the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. That makes perfect sense.”