Analysts point out van Aert’s big advantage over van der Poel this winter: "They’re out for blood"

“Sometimes they don't even seem to know themselves,” laughs former cyclo-cross rider Thijs van Amerongen in the podcast Kop over Kop. He thinks van der Poel will follow roughly the same schedule as last year. “He ended his road season quite early, so that's a good thing in itself: if he's in the right frame of mind and he feels like it, he might start a little earlier,” speculates the Dutchman.

His Belgian partner Jeroen Vanbelleghem hopes that van Aert can close the gap on the seven-time world champion a little more. "We've seen some great battles between van der Poel and Van Aert over the years. Okay, maybe you shouldn't include last year, but if you take the last 10 seasons as a whole, we've seen some fantastic races where they were at the start."

According to Van Amerongen, the first signs are good in any case. “He's finally had a good summer, hasn't he? He's not coming back from a severe injury or whatever he's been through. He's back on his bike, I saw on Strava.” After his vacation, Van Aert completed a training session of just over 100 kilometers last Tuesday, which he himself described as grueling.

Last year, the 31-year-old Belgian from Visma | Lease a Bike only competed in the field eight times. “That will be more now, it has to be,” says Vanbelleghem. “Or rather, he doesn't have to do anything. But last year, there was that serious injury in the Vuelta. This year, he stopped a little earlier, so I expect him to be there at the end of November.” He mentions the World Cup in Flamanville (November 30) as a good opportunity for van Aert's first cyclo-cross race.

If van der Poel sticks to the same schedule as last year, he will only start his cyclo-cross season a month later. Van Aert could already be battling it out in the field for a month by then, which would offer opportunities. “It would be great to see van Aert at his best and van der Poel a little less so,” says the Eurosport commentator. “He could be a little jaded with all the goals he had last season.”

As a cyclo-cross fanatic, Van Amerongen hopes that van Aert will once again focus fully on the winter and not think too much about the upcoming road season. “Why not just ride an old school winter and see where it takes you? No altitude training camps, all that fuss. Just go for it, race, and see where you end up in the classics.”

At the Play Sports podcast they are slightly less optimistic about van Aert's chances. Niels Albert and Paul Herygers take a somewhat gloomy view. “If Wout can’t beat Mathieu, we’re in for a boring race,” says Albert. “If Mathieu pulls away in the second minute, like last year, we’re going to see ten boring races. Everyone wants to see a battle.”

Herygers also normally sees Van der Poel as a different caliber of rider, but he recognizes that his rival may be better when the going gets tough. “I mean, he's going to open up the throttle and not wait a second. And then there's Van Aert. They can take each other on. I'm looking to the weather gods—a muddy Dendemonde. I don't see why Wout can't beat Van der Poel in that situation. I'm not underestimating him, you know.”

This year, the world championships will be held in Hulst: Van der Poel could win his eighth world title in his own country. “Purely in terms of class and talent, he's slightly better than Wout,” Albert observes. “But I'm chauvinistic and hope that a Belgian wins the world championships. We need an excellent Wout to make it difficult for Mathieu. I hope we get to see that.”

“I do believe in Wout van Aert in Hulst,” concludes the former world champion. “That climb is something Wout should be able to handle. Technically, it’s not the most difficult part, where Mathieu has an advantage. I draw a comparison to the World Championships in Valkenburg. However, that was a bit more difficult. It would be good for the sport if he wins the World Championships.”