2026 Tour de France points classification favourites: UCI seeks broader shoulders for the green jersey
CyclingWednesday, 24 June 2026 at 15:42
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Follow us on GoogleThe green jersey has long been awarded to the best, and most versatile, sprinter at the Tour de France. Last year, Tadej Pogačar nearly broke that trend, prompting A.S.O. to take action. IDL Pro Cycling has taken the time to look into the new rules, and then compiled a list of top contenders for the points classification in the 2026 edition.
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Last year, Tadej Pogacar and Mathieu van der Poel were in contention for the green jersey, mainly because of how they tackled the Category 2 stages. On those stages, they made several bold moves, earning 50 or 30 points at the finish line for the points classification.
This year, Category 1 (the easiest stages, designated by the A.S.O. as obstacle-free) has been separated from Category 2. Whereas last year the winner of a completely flat stage received 50 points, that number is now 70. Adjustments have also been made to the lower-ranked stages to make the green jersey more attractive to sprinters.
The riders in 2nd and 3rd place will also receive 50 and 40 points, respectively, while the rider in 5th place in such stages receives the same number of points as the rider in 2nd place in Category 2 stages: 30. The 10th-place finisher also receives 18 points, which is the same as the 4th-place finisher in a Category 2 stage.
Read more below the photo.
Mathieu van der Poel in the green jersey: that seems less likely in this Tour.
The other categories—the hill and mountain stages and time trials—remain unchanged. This means that a maximum of 30 and 20 points, respectively, are still up for grabs in those categories. The maximum number of points for the intermediate sprint, which is awarded each day, also remains at 25.
So which stages of the Tour de France have been classified as “very easy”? That applies to stages 5, 7, 8, 11, and 12. The stage to Paris, just like Stage 4 to Foix and Stages 13 and 17, has been classified as second category. In practical terms, this means that the Pogacars and Van der Poels can “only” earn 50 points instead of 70 in Paris.
Last year, for example, Van der Poel still managed to score the maximum 50 points on Day 2, ahead of Pogacar. Two days later in Rouen, it was the other way around, while Pogacar even picked up 50 points on the Mur de Bretagne, putting him in the lead in the points classification after 7 days. In the end, he still finished 78 points behind winner Jonathan Milan in 2025.
Read more below the photo.
The category of each stage in the upcoming Tour de France.
Recent Winners of the Tour de France Points Classification
2025 Jonathan Milan
2024 Biniam Girmay
2024 Biniam Girmay
2023 Jasper Philipsen
2022 Wout van Aert
2021 Mark Cavendish
2020 Sam Bennett
2019 Peter Sagan
2018 Peter Sagan
2017 Michael Matthews
2016 Peter Sagan
2026 Tour de France Points Classification favorites
To compile this list, current and former editors of *In de Leiderstrui* were asked to name their top ten in response to the question: “Who has the best chance of winning the points classification in the Tour de France?” Each top-ten selection was assigned points according to the following scale: 12 points for first place, 10 for second, and so on with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 point. There may still be adjustments based on the final start list.
10. Mathieu van der Poel - Alpecin-Premier Tech
Mathieu van der Poel looked like he might be in contention for the green jersey during the final week of last year’s Tour de France, but pneumonia threw a spanner in the works. In 2026, the Dutchman is back at the Tour de France, but he will likely be one of those disadvantaged by the change in the points system.
Alpecin-Premier Tech will certainly be counting on Jasper Philipsen when it comes to the green jersey. The Belgian already won the jersey once in 2023 and finished second in 2022 and 2024, while last year—wearing the green jersey —he was forced to withdraw after a serious crash.
9. Pavel Bittner - Picnic PostNL
Things haven't exactly been going smoothly for Picnic PostNL this season. That's partly due to the quality of the team's roster, but bad luck has also played a role. Pavel Bittner was also affected by this: the Czech sprinter suffered a serious ankle injury in a crash during the Classique Duinkerke.
As a result, Bittner’s participation in the Tour de France was briefly in doubt, but judging by his Instagram post—“getting ready for a lap of France”—we’ll see him back in the Tour in July. With his strengths in both sprints and the tougher stages, he’ll also be a contender for the green jersey.
8. Dorian Godon - Netcompany INEOS
The green jersey isn’t just for the rider with the fastest sprints on the flat, but also for riders who can pick up points in intermediate sprints and transition stages. In that regard, Dorian Godon (Netcompany INEOS) is perhaps one of the more interesting contenders. Godon has already won five WorldTour-level races this season.
The Frenchman doesn’t always get involved in the pure sprints, but when he can unleash his power, he’s one of the riders you’d definitely pick for the slightly tougher challenges. If he can also tackle the flatter finishes there in July, he could very well go far in the points classification of the Tour de France.
7. Milan Fretin - Cofidis
Seventh place on our list is reserved for Milan Fretin, a fast rider with Cofidis. The 25-year-old Belgian, who is preparing for his Tour de France debut, is one of the few sprinters who will have a full train at his disposal. That group includes Alex Kirsch, Jenthe Biermans, Hugo Page, and Benjamin Thomas, among others.
Fretin is having a good season, but his lead-up to the Tour de France wasn’t ideal. He crashed in the Copenhagen Sprint and was therefore unable to contend for the top spots in the Baloise Belgium Tour, though he did start to feel better as the race progressed. A new challenge awaits him at the 2026 Tour de France.
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6. Tadej Pogacar - UAE Emirates-XRG
The A.S.O. has presumably adjusted the rules because of the presence of the insatiable Tadej Pogačar, but rules are for lesser mortals than Pogi. The chance that he’ll actually make it to Paris in the green jersey is slim, but still a possibility. After all, we’re talking about a rider who has already won 21 stages in the Tour de France.
Pogačar probably won’t be able to rely on the flat stages, but he’ll likely rack up a ton of points again in the tougher stages. And if it comes down to the final stage in Paris, or if the sprinters—just like in the Giro—don’t quite hit their stride a few times, things could still get exciting.
5. Biniam Girmay - NSN
To the surprise of many, Biniam Girmay won the green jersey two years ago riding for Intermarché-Wanty. In 2026, he’ll once again have a team that’s there primarily to support him as best as possible. In the Baloise Belgium Tour, the rider from Eritrea already had a solid dress rehearsal, although Krists Neilands and Guillaume Boivin—both of whom were normally slated for the Tour—dropped out on the final day.
At NSN, they were already aware of the changes in the points classification during the Baloise Belgium Tour. Team manager Sam Bewley—with whom an interview will be published later—has already indicated that, partly for this reason, the team will initially focus on stage wins, but that the green jersey could become a bigger goal as the race progresses. Depending on the results, of course.
4. Olav Kooij - Decathlon CMA CGM
Olav Kooij was signed by Decathlon CMA CGM last winter amid much fanfare, with the goal of winning as many Tour stages as possible—and the green jersey. After a rocky start due to a prolonged viral illness, the Dutch rider has already made his mark with stage wins at the Boucles de la Mayenne and the Baloise Belgium Tour.
Point two, however—on paper—aligns somewhat less with the team’s ambitions for Paul Seixas, although Kooij has proven time and again that he can go far on his own. The question of to what extent the Dutchman will make the green his goal is, however, a valid one as the season approaches.
3. Tim Merlier - Soudal Quick-Step
When we talk about pure sprinters, Tim Merlier of Soudal Quick-Step is the first name that comes to mind. The Belgian excels in flat finishes, and that could work in his favor in the battle for the green jersey, although he has never really made the points classification a priority in a Grand Tour so far.
Merlier knows better than anyone where his strengths lie, and they’re not in the high or mid-mountain stages, which is why he usually saves his energy for the days that suit him best. If he really stands out in that regard during this Tour, the green jersey could still very well come into play.
2. Mads Pedersen - Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek won the battle for the green jersey last year with Jonathan Milan, but the Italian won’t be there this year. Milan was given free rein in the Giro, while Mads Pedersen will return to the world’s biggest cycling race after a year’s absence. The versatile Dane will do so with one major goal in mind: to win the green jersey for the first time.
So expect a Lidl-Trek performance like last year’s in the Giro or the Vuelta, when they seized every opportunity with both hands. We can also expect Van Pedersen to make his mark in the transition stages, in a way few others can match. Among the sprinters, he is undeniably the best climber.
1. Jasper Philipsen - Alpecin-Premier Tech
Jasper Philipsen is the clear favorite for the green jersey. The Belgian rider from Alpecin-Premier Tech continues to become a more well-rounded rider, while losing little in terms of pure speed. In the run-up to the Tour de France, he won both the Copenhagen Sprint and the general classification of the Baloise Belgium Tour. He clinched that last race by holding his own in the heat at Durbuy and then winning the hilly final stage.
In the flat sprints, Philipsen will need to gain an advantage over the Pedersens of this world in order to consolidate it in the tougher stages. With an Alpecin-Premier Tech train that will serve him well, led by Van der Poel, that’s a scenario in which we must consider him a contender.
David Bavin-HobbsChief Editor
David has been working in the sports & cycling industry for 16 years. Covering racing, business and technology, he has worked in communications for cycling companies, teams, and as a journalist. His proudest achievement is winning the first bike race he ever entered. He hasn't won a race since.
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Latest Comments
- - Vamos Pedersen! El más completo en las etapas mixtas. Si aguanta la montaña media y suma intermedios, puede ganar el verde por regularidad.patriciaw24-06-2026
- - Not sure the piece gives Kooij enough credit—he’s looked sharper since Mayenne. If Decathlon CMA CGM commit a full train, he can clean up on the 70-point days. Saying it “aligns less” with Seixas feels off, tbh.sprocketspiny24-06-2026
- - Love the shout for Dorian Godon. If he scoops consistent top-6 on transitions and nicks intermediate sprints, he’s a sleeper for green, especially if Merlier only targets the drag races.andrewf24-06-2026
- - Are Category 1 and 2 the same as “flat” vs “semi-flat”? Bit confused why Paris is Cat 2 now—does that mean fewer points available on the Champs-Élysées compared to the other pancake stages?velodromevirtuoso124-06-2026
- - Great breakdown of the new points scale. Bumping flat stage wins to 70 massively shifts the incentives back to the pure sprinters. Philipsen plus MvdP pilot fish is terrifying on stages 5/7/8/11/jennifer1924-06-2026
- - Increíble actuación de Pogacar. Si en junio ya marca casi 7 w/kg, en el Tour va a volar. Respeto para Martinez también, enorme valentía.cyclechamp4524-06-2026
- - So if he’s at95 w/kg for the segment, what would Vingegaard need to beat that on a similar climb?1? Is that realistic after his crash recovery?robert6524-06-2026
- - Pogacar letting Decathlon CMA CGM do the grunt work was cold-blooded. Then he nukes it with 9k to go, reels in Martinez by almost two minutes. That’s the move of a guy thinking yellow, not just Swiss glory.julien24-06-2026
- - Great piece but tiny quibble: comparing this to Plateau de Beille feels off without identical conditions (temp, wind, draft, road surface). Apples and oranges unless we adjust for density and pacing.lindae24-06-2026
- - Wait, is VAM like average speed on the climb? And how do they even estimate his watts if they don’t have the actual power file?breakawaybikerd24-06-2026
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