2026 Tour de France Stage 5 Preview | "Just" a sprint, but didn't we think the same thing in Pau in 2024...

We’ve covered quite a few meters of elevation gain in the first few days of the 2026 Tour de France. Wednesday might finally be the day for the sprinters to do their thing. Pau, which has been a starting and finishing point just about every year, is rolling out the red (or in this case, green) carpet. Or will there still be a catch? IDL Pro Cycling previews the stage.

The fifth stage of the Tour de France starts in Lannemezan, at 592 meters above sea level. The riders will set off quickly from that starting point, as the first twenty kilometers are mostly downhill.

In races like these, the question often arises: who’s up for it? We’re talking about the early breakaway of the day, since such stages often unfold according to a carefully planned scenario. The sprinter teams don’t want to let their rider get left in the dust during one of the few chances they have, so they’ll keep a tight grip on the reins.

In the Giro d'Italia, we saw that things can still go wrong even then—a lesson that, thank you very much, Fredrik Dversnes, they will have learned from. To quote Bert Van Lerberghe, Tim Merlier’s lead-out man at Soudal Quick-Step, from when we spoke with him before the Tour de France during the Baloise Belgium Tour.

"Back in the day, there used to be an unwritten rule in certain stages, but these days everyone knows the names of the guys who try to stir things up. Jonas Abrahamsen, for example, is at the top of that list; he always goes for it. He’s always strong in the Tour, and we try to control those guys as best we can, as the situation allows,” he explained.

All right, so we can probably consider the first 100 kilometers a done deal. But at that point, some nervousness might still creep in, since the intermediate sprint in Vic-en-Bigorre is scheduled for the 113-kilometer mark. It will also be interesting to see what happens next, because six kilometers later, in Casteide-Doat, we’ll begin a hilly section of about 25 kilometers.

Toward Lamayou—40 kilometers from the finish—the road climbs at a 6.8 percent grade for 1.1 kilometers, and in the following kilometers, it passes through Maure (0.6 km at 8.6 percent), the categorized Cote de Baleix (1 kilometer at 8.8 percent), and a little later, Quartier Haute Vue (500 meters at 6.6 percent) via the D7.

After that last one, it’s still about twelve kilometers to Pau, where the safe zone for the general classification contenders is located 5 kilometers from the finish. That’s necessary, too, because there’s a narrowing 4 kilometers from the finish. Next, the peloton must take a left-hand turn around a roundabout just over 2 kilometers from the finish, immediately followed by another narrowing.

Just before the flag, there’s a sharp left turn, where the contenders will already be vying for the front. In the following 500 meters, there are two more gentle turns before the final 560 meters run in a straight line. This is an identical finish to the one in 2024, when Jasper Philipsen—after a similar second half of the race , featuring quite a few climbs— won the sprint from a thinned-out peloton that had been cut in half along the way by strong breakaways and echelons. Among others, Wout van Aert, Pascal Ackermann, and Biniam Girmay finished on the podium that year.

Times
Start: 2:05 p.m CET
Finish: approximately 5:37 p.m CET

It will be a bit cooler in and around Pau on Wednesday, but with temperatures around 35 degrees Celsius, it still promises to be hot. A tailwind would have been nice, but there will hardly be any wind. So we won’t be seeing a repeat of the 2024 scenario, with echelons.

All the sprinter teams have identified this stage as the first real opportunity in the race, and that’s usually how it turns out. However, it’s also true that we’ve already completed four tough and hot stages, which take a greater toll on riders with more mass than on those who climb well.

Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech) was part of the early breakaway on Tuesday and is the most recent winner in Pau, so we’re naming him the top favorite for this stage. The Belgian has already shown strong climbing form in the Baloise Belgium Tour and has a full lead-out train at his disposal, with Jonas Rickaert, Edward Planckaert, and Mathieu van der Poel bringing up the rear.

In terms of pure speed, Tim Merlier ( Soudal Quick-Step) might be just a bit faster. Despite a late start to the season, the Belgian already has six wins under his belt this season, and he’s hoping to add to that tally in the Tour. With Jasper Stuyven joining the sprint train, the core group surrounding the speedy rider from Wortegem-Petegem has been further strengthened.

Olav Kooij (Decathlon CMA CGM) has kept a low profile so far in the Tour de France, but that’s usually when he’s at his most dangerous. The Dutchman is patiently waiting for his first opportunity, though he won’t be thrown off if things don’t work out in Pau. In the two Giro d’Italia races he’s completed, it took more than a week each time.

Which teams can take advantage of the hilly section in the final quarter? Lidl-Trek and NSN immediately come to mind. Mads Pedersen, riding for the German team, knows he isn’t the absolute fastest, but with riders like Mathias Vacek, he has a strong team to push the pace. Biniam Girmay, on the other hand, showed in the Balosie Belgium Tour that he can beat the aforementioned riders. He’s already demonstrated that in the intermediate sprints of this Tour as well.

Behind the names mentioned so far is a whole group of riders for whom a Tour de France stage win would be the crowning achievement of their careers. Max Kanter (XDS-Astana), Soren Waerenskjold (Uno-X), Milan Fretin (Cofidis), Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious), Pavel Bittner (Picnic PostNL), and Pascal Ackermann (Jayco AlUla) are the designated sprinters on their respective teams, and for them, it only takes one race for everything to fall into place...

Veterans like Anthony Turgis ( TotalEnergies) and Fernando Gaviria (Caja Rural) know what it’s like to win a stage in the world’s biggest race, but they’ll likely fall short when it comes to pure speed. Arvid de Kleijn (Tudor) does have that speed, but he struggles significantly more on the climbs.

In a scenario where the pace is too fast for him, Rick Pluimers will likely aim for a place on the podium. It will also be interesting to see what teams without a true sprinter will try to do. Following Arnaud De Lie’s withdrawal, Lotto-Intermarché will likely focus on Jenno Berckmoes, while Netcompany INEOS, with the fast Dorian Godon and Filippo Ganna, might be able to make some waves.

Fred Wright (Pinarello-Q36.5), Magnus Cort, Jonas Abrahamsen (Tudor), Clément Russo (Groupama-FDJ), Kasper Asgreen (EF) and Nico Denz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) are among the proven attackers, but will they get the space they need?

Top favorites: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech) and Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step)
Dark horses: Olav Kooij (Decathlon CMA CGM), Biniam Girmay (NSN), Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), and Max Kanter (XDS-Astana)
Long shots: Soren Waerenskjold (Uno-X), Milan Fretin (Cofidis), Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious), Pavel Bittner (Picnic PostNL), Pascal Ackermann (Jayco AlUla), Anthony Turgis (TotalEnergies), Dorian Godon, Filippo Ganna (Netcompany INEOS), Arvid de Kleijn (Tudor), Fernando Gaviria (Caja Rural), and Jenno Berckmoes (Lotto-Intermarché)