Bakelants sees flashier UAE and questions Visma | LaB: "Where is Kuss and how good is Jorgenson really?"
Cycling
Follow IDL Pro Cycling on Google
Stay up to date with the best cycling news by making us a preferred source on Google.
Follow us on GoogleJust a few more days before the Tour de France kicks off. Top favorite Pogacar will be aiming to add his fourth overall victory, while Jonas Vingegaard and Visma | Lease a Bike will be eager to stop him. We’ll see the results in Paris at the end of July, but for now, there’s plenty of room for pre-race analysis. Jan Bakelants did just that with HLN. The Belgian doesn’t seem to have much confidence in the Killer Bees.
ADVERTISEMENT
“On paper, Pogacar’s and Vingegaard’s teams are evenly matched,” Bakelants begins his analysis. “You can almost line them up one by one: Wellens and Benoot are equals in supporting roles, Affini does on the flat what Politt can do, Almeida and Jorgenson are the first lieutenants, the Yates brothers can be swapped for each other… Yet I still give the advantage to Team UAE: the momentum is clearly with Pogacar and his team.”
The Belgian sees that UAE Emirates-XRG are eager to show just how strong they are. “They ride through the peloton with such confidence, always relying on their own strength, and everyone seems to be in excellent form. Many of their riders have also won recently.” Almeida is an example of this. “He just won the Tour of Switzerland plus three stages. He will have no problem riding in support of Pogacar at the Tour. It’s easier to do that with your pockets full than when you’re empty-handed.”
According to that theory, the same should apply to Simon Yates. “He won the Giro, but I have a different feeling about him. Yates was able to tick off his big dream so late in his career, and it’s almost inevitable that some decompression follows. That must have done something to him, right?”
Read more below the photo!
Bakelants questions how good Jorgenson and Kuss really are: "I don’t see that happening with him"
According to Bakelants, it also depends on how good the rest of the Killer Bees are. “Where has Sepp Kuss gone? Is he still the man he was two or three years ago, when he was among the top three climbers in the world? And how good is Matteo Jorgenson really? I don’t get the impression you can play him as a second leader like they did with Primoz Roglic. In 2022, Vingegaard and Roglic were able to team up and put Pogacar in a vice, and they succeeded in cracking him, but I don’t see that happening with Jorgenson.”
So, the Belgian analyst talks about “question marks” on the side of Visma | Lease a Bike. “Unfortunately, Wout van Aert is also dealing with his share of bad luck again. That stomach issue he had was real: he came back down from altitude specifically for the National Championships because he saw a real chance at a new title.” That was a mental blow for Van Aert. “Yet another one. I also don’t know where Tiesj Benoot stands. He was supposed to go for the GC in Switzerland, but that didn’t happen due to a crash. How good is he now?”
Bakelants therefore speaks of a “flashier” team at UAE and knows why. “The riders of Visma | Lease a Bike are starting to get older. Van Aert, Benoot, Campenaerts, Kuss, Yates: they’re all past 30. Still really good riders, no doubt about it, but they’re not going to get better anymore. It’s like wine: they’re nearing the end of their drinking window. At a certain point, wine is still enjoyable, but it doesn’t improve anymore, and eventually, it gets worse.”
At UAE, though, they are in that drinking window differently. "Almeida, at 26 years old, is a teenager. Sivakov is 27, Narvaez 28: those guys are in the prime of their careers. Of course they also have some older riders, Wellens, Soler, Yates, but the mix is healthier."
Read more below the photo!
Visma | Lease a Bike faces "two tough challenges" in the Tour, says Bakelants
All in all, according to Bakelants, Visma | Lease a Bike is “facing a mountain” in the upcoming Tour. “They know as well that if nothing unexpected happens, there’s an eighty percent chance that Pogacar will win the Tour again. Two years ago, he was still beatable, but the world looks different now. Pogacar has been able to keep building without any physical setbacks. He has been able to build month after month on top of a good previous month. It’s like at the bank: you have capital that earns interest, but you also get interest on that interest. That’s profit on top of profit.”
Vingegaard and Evenepoel, however, weren’t able to keep building like that. “Their progress was halted by crashes; they had to start again from zero. For me, that explains the gap between those three today. Vingegaard is not better than in 2023, Evenepoel hasn’t made much progress as a grand tour rider since winning the Vuelta in 2022, but Pogacar has taken a big step forward.”
And that impressive UAE team Bakelants mentioned also plays a role. “That gets into their heads. At Visma | Lease a Bike they’re frantically searching for solutions. You can feel the doubt: ‘How fast will we have to ride to isolate Pogacar?’ Because only once that happens can you move on to step two: only once his team is gone can the big showdown between the leaders begin. Those are two very tough challenges,” the Belgian concludes.
Read also
Bram van der PloegEditor-in-chief
Bram van der Ploeg (35) is the proud founder of In de Leiderstrui, IDL Pro Cycling's parent site, launched in 2018. Finally, he could create stories about the sport he had followed since childhood. He is the editor-in-chief on paper, but prefers to be with his recorder next to a rider, a team bus, or in the mud at a cyclocross race. Every year, from February to the end of May, Bram follows the entire Italian cycling season, from the Trofeo Laigueglia to the Giro d'Italia, with the grand finale in October in Lombardy. During that time, he lives in Tuscany, where he has since come to call Italy his 'home'.
IDL-productions
Celia Gery won the European cyclocross championship while awaiting surgery: 'It'll be a new beginning'
Dutch team coach De Knegt annoyed by European Cyclocross Championships dispute: "A bit of a let down"
Glasgow set to shine as World Cup demand outstrips expectations and Mason eyes first home cyclocross race
Pogačar, Vingegaard and Van Aert went faster again in 2026... except when they didn't
Team GB dominate, China on the rise, Lavreysen the best ever? Five takeaways from the 2026 Track World Championships
Latest Cycling News
Eddie Dunbar wins Vuelta stage as Pinarello-Q36.5 put three riders in top five and Roglič attacks
Tom Pidcock ends 2026 fifth in the world, with Ciccone and Hayter arriving at Pinarello for 2027
Picnic PostNL's WorldTour uncertainty has five rival teams, and Tom Pidcock, watching the UCI closely
Ceylin del Carmen Alvarado's injury isn't as bad as feared, but she may not line up for a while
TotalEnergies rescued from collapse, but rider recruitment remains a problem before 27th Tour de France appearance
Popular Cycling News
Sven Nys spoke with Lucinda Brand straight after European Championship drama: 'Is that enough to ultimately relegate someone'
Fears of serious injury to Alvarado, bronze medalist, after the European Cyclocross Championships
Disqualified Schreiber skips European Championship podium: 'I’m very grateful that she said that'
Picnic PostNL's WorldTour uncertainty has five rival teams, and Tom Pidcock, watching the UCI closely
Schreiber slams disrespectful European cyclocross championship judges: 'They didn’t even let me finish speaking'
Latest Comments
- Eight riders told to go for stages, and nobody gets one—hard to know what the plan was there. It’ll be interesting to see whether they pick a clear leader next time.bikebuffj10-11-2026
- Was Bernal’s 20th place really their best GC result? I thought he might have finished higher. Either way, it sounds like a rough Tour for the whole team.gearguru3310-11-2026
- Five days in breaks with no stage win is a painful stat. The team had chances, but they need to turn those opportunities into results.julien10-11-2026
- The Onley Vuelta example makes sense: a team with someone to rally around often looks much more cohesive. Hopefully INEOS can build on that rather than expecting a quick return to the Sky years.cadencekingm10-11-2026
- Thomas is right about the ambiguity. Eight riders all chasing stages can end up pulling in different directions, even if nobody’s deliberately working against anyone. They need a clearer plan once the GC leaders are out.robert6510-11-2026
- What a mess. The report makes it sound as though nobody properly explained the decision, and that’s hard to defend.jennifer1910-11-2026
- I’m still learning the rules: does moving left in a sprint automatically bring a penalty, or does it depend on whether the other rider is blocked? It sounds like Brand wasn’t impeded here.patriciaw10-11-2026
- A final decision still needs a proper explanation. If the federation’s complaint goes nowhere, I hope the officials at least review how they handled the riders afterwards.michael5410-11-2026
- Fair play to Lucinda for saying Marie had won fair and square. That kind of sportsmanship matters, especially after such a controversial decision.raceready710-11-2026
- Schreiber beat Brand on the road, so the jury needed to explain clearly why that slight deviation warranted relegation. Being cut off before she could give her account sounds appalling.lindae10-11-2026