Bakelants sees flashier UAE and questions Visma | LaB: "Where is Kuss and how good is Jorgenson really?"

“On paper, Pogacar’s and Vingegaard’s teams are evenly matched,” Bakelants begins his analysis. “You can almost line them up one by one: Wellens and Benoot are equals in supporting roles, Affini does on the flat what Politt can do, Almeida and Jorgenson are the first lieutenants, the Yates brothers can be swapped for each other… Yet I still give the advantage to Team UAE: the momentum is clearly with Pogacar and his team.”

The Belgian sees that UAE Emirates-XRG are eager to show just how strong they are. “They ride through the peloton with such confidence, always relying on their own strength, and everyone seems to be in excellent form. Many of their riders have also won recently.” Almeida is an example of this. “He just won the Tour of Switzerland plus three stages. He will have no problem riding in support of Pogacar at the Tour. It’s easier to do that with your pockets full than when you’re empty-handed.”

According to that theory, the same should apply to Simon Yates. “He won the Giro, but I have a different feeling about him. Yates was able to tick off his big dream so late in his career, and it’s almost inevitable that some decompression follows. That must have done something to him, right?”

According to Bakelants, it also depends on how good the rest of the Killer Bees are. “Where has Sepp Kuss gone? Is he still the man he was two or three years ago, when he was among the top three climbers in the world? And how good is Matteo Jorgenson really? I don’t get the impression you can play him as a second leader like they did with Primoz Roglic. In 2022, Vingegaard and Roglic were able to team up and put Pogacar in a vice, and they succeeded in cracking him, but I don’t see that happening with Jorgenson.”

So, the Belgian analyst talks about “question marks” on the side of Visma | Lease a Bike. “Unfortunately, Wout van Aert is also dealing with his share of bad luck again. That stomach issue he had was real: he came back down from altitude specifically for the National Championships because he saw a real chance at a new title.” That was a mental blow for Van Aert. “Yet another one. I also don’t know where Tiesj Benoot stands. He was supposed to go for the GC in Switzerland, but that didn’t happen due to a crash. How good is he now?”

Bakelants therefore speaks of a “flashier” team at UAE and knows why. “The riders of Visma | Lease a Bike are starting to get older. Van Aert, Benoot, Campenaerts, Kuss, Yates: they’re all past 30. Still really good riders, no doubt about it, but they’re not going to get better anymore. It’s like wine: they’re nearing the end of their drinking window. At a certain point, wine is still enjoyable, but it doesn’t improve anymore, and eventually, it gets worse.”

At UAE, though, they are in that drinking window differently. "Almeida, at 26 years old, is a teenager. Sivakov is 27, Narvaez 28: those guys are in the prime of their careers. Of course they also have some older riders, Wellens, Soler, Yates, but the mix is healthier."

All in all, according to Bakelants, Visma | Lease a Bike is “facing a mountain” in the upcoming Tour. “They know as well that if nothing unexpected happens, there’s an eighty percent chance that Pogacar will win the Tour again. Two years ago, he was still beatable, but the world looks different now. Pogacar has been able to keep building without any physical setbacks. He has been able to build month after month on top of a good previous month. It’s like at the bank: you have capital that earns interest, but you also get interest on that interest. That’s profit on top of profit.”

Vingegaard and Evenepoel, however, weren’t able to keep building like that. “Their progress was halted by crashes; they had to start again from zero. For me, that explains the gap between those three today. Vingegaard is not better than in 2023, Evenepoel hasn’t made much progress as a grand tour rider since winning the Vuelta in 2022, but Pogacar has taken a big step forward.”

And that impressive UAE team Bakelants mentioned also plays a role. “That gets into their heads. At Visma | Lease a Bike they’re frantically searching for solutions. You can feel the doubt: ‘How fast will we have to ride to isolate Pogacar?’ Because only once that happens can you move on to step two: only once his team is gone can the big showdown between the leaders begin. Those are two very tough challenges,” the Belgian concludes.