Dumoulin and De Cauwer analyze van der Poel’s chances on Mur de Bretagne: "The last 10 kilometers must have been brutal"

But first, Dumoulin praised Healy. “He was incredible,” Dumoulin raved. “By far the strongest today. He surprised everyone with that attack, but he didn’t really need to surprise anyone. He rode almost three minutes away... Van der Poel attacked once to get into the leading group, but Healy had been working hard since the first kilometer to catch up with the leaders. That takes so much energy."

Van der Poel was unable to follow the attack by the Irishman from EF Education - EasyPost, after which he completely collapsed in the final phase. "In the last thirty kilometers, we saw that he wasn't having a good day. He's not responding to other riders. He tries, but he just can't keep going. Then, you're not just a rider who has accepted defeat; you're also physically unable to continue. Sometimes you have days like that when it just doesn't work out."

But no one has any doubts about the former world champion's fitness. He will simply stand his ground for the rest of the Tour de France. "Of course, he's good, but not today. It's also very hot for the first time. Some guys suffer more than others. It's not a computer game. Yesterday, Jonas had a bad day. Now Mathieu is last in the leading group."

Van der Poel will likely lose his yellow jersey in the stage to Mur de Bretagne, but Dumoulin does not want to jump to conclusions. “You can't predict that in the Tour de France. You can have a fantastic day and still cross the finish line exhausted. And the opposite also happens from time to time.” In 2021, Van der Poel was the strongest on the difficult hill.

Will Pogacar let his team do the work again? Not necessarily, says the man from Limburg. It could well be that a breakaway rider wins again. “Mathieu won't put his team at the front because there's a good chance that Pogacar will win the sprint. Mathieu thinks: fine, we'll sprint for it, but then you have to ride for it. And Pogacar doesn't necessarily need that jersey. I expect a long battle because other teams think the breakaway has a chance. I also think there will be a breakaway to the finish.”

Like Dumoulin, José De Cauwer enjoyed the crazy opening phase. It took a long time and cost the riders a lot to break away. "I've rarely seen a breakaway that took so much energy to get away," said the analyst at Sporza. “Everyone has tried it at some point. It will be the same tomorrow. Maybe they will ride away faster, but I don't think so.”

Will a stage like this have an impact? According to the former team boss, it differs from person to person. “You hear riders say that this will affect them, while Remco Evenepoel says it was okay. Ask Mathieu van der Poel, and I don't think you'll get an answer. Those last 10 kilometers must have been brutal.” Van der Poel suffered greatly in the final kilometers and lost minutes to the peloton in a short period.

“The peloton never knew that,” De Cauwer thinks. “They heard that Mathieu still had a few minutes, but he completely collapsed. He was really done.” With a one-second lead, he will ride up the Mur de Bretagne, and the Belgian is pessimistic: defending the yellow jersey will be a difficult task. "He'll need to have a very good night and recover well. He was already very happy with that one second. I could see in his eyes that he doesn't think he'll make it tomorrow."

Good news for the Belgians: Remco Evenepoel had an excellent day. After the finish, he said he was still reasonably fresh, and he was one of the few who felt that way. His team was also better organized than it had been before. "You could see him enjoying himself along the way. His teammates surrounded him. They weren't all there at first, but they gathered around him. And that does him good."