Favorites stage 4 Vuelta a Espana 2025 | First the infamous Lautaret, but then... a very long descent!

The stage kicks off still on Italian soil, where the road begins to climb almost immediately. After just under five kilometers, the first climb of the day begins: the Puerto Exiles. At 5.6 kilometers with an average gradient of 5.6%, it’s a Category 3 climb.

A very short descent follows the summit, and the road then heads uphill again almost straight away toward the next climb: the Col de Montgenèvre. With 8.3 kilometers at 6.1%, this is a more serious effort. And at the top, riders will cross the border into France.

After the summit, follows a longer descent follows toward Briançon. Once in town, the climbing resumes as the riders head west toward Le Monêtier-Les-Bains. That’s where the Col du Lautaret begins: 13.8 kilometers at an average gradient of 4.3%. But even after reaching the summit… there are still a staggering 130 kilometers (!) to go until the finish.

Most of that is downhill. The riders descend toward Le Freney-d'Oisans, where the route levels out briefly on a plateau. Then it's more descending toward Grenoble, with a small bump along the way, and on to Noyarey. Just over 30 kilometers from the finish, there’s an intermediate sprint in Noyarey.

From there, the road flattens out as the peloton approaches Voiron, where the stage finishes. As they enter the town, the road kicks up ever so slightly, and the finale is fairly technical with several bends. After the final left-hand turn, it’s a straight 400-meter dash to the line. But that last stretch has a 4% incline, which could prove tricky, especially after the riders have tackled so many climbs and have over 200 kilometers in their legs.

Climbs
10.4 km: Puerto Exiles (5.6 km at 5.6%)

Times
Start: 11:43 AM (local time) | 05:43 AM (Eastern time)
Finish: around 4:45 PM (local time) | 10:45 AM (Eastern time)

It’s going to be hot on Tuesday, with temperatures in the finish town of Voiron reaching around 31°C (88°F). Fortunately for the riders, it will be significantly cooler at higher altitudes. There will be a very light breeze, but it’ll be a headwind in the final kilometers, which could influence the outcome.

The big question: can the strong sprinters survive the climbs and get back in time, or will a breakaway fight it out in Voiron for the stage win? If it comes down to a bunch sprint, Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) is the clear favorite. His team pulled all day on Monday, only for Pedersen to be surprisingly outpunched at the finish by David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ).

Whether Pedersen will commit again to chasing for a sprint or instead try to get into the break himself remains to be seen. Either way, there are a few fast finishers left in the race who can handle the climbs, including: Orluis Aular (Movistar), Fabio Christen (Q36.5), Guillermo Thomas Silva(Caja Rural), Thibaud Gruel (Groupama-FDJ) and Jake Stewart (Israel-Premier Tech), for example.  As for Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), this stage might be too difficult, but if he manages to hang on…

Still, the most likely outcome seems to be a breakaway win, especially because Jonas Vingegaard and Visma | Lease a Bike may be eager to let go of the red jersey. One rider to watch is Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech): a powerful Italian with a good instinct for the right moves and the strength to stay at the front.

But there are more riders like that, provided they're not seen as a GC threat in Madrid. Marc Soler (UAE Emirates-XRG) is a name that immediately comes to mind, but riders like Maximilian Schachmann (Soudal Quick-Step), Simon Carr (Cofidis), Pablo Castrillo, Javier Romo (Movistar), Magnus Sheffield (INEOS Grenadiers), and Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R) all have the ability to perform both on climbs and on the flats.

More punchy types like Victor Langelotti (INEOS Grenadiers), Lukas Nerurkar (EF Education–EasyPost), Kevin Vermaerke (Picnic PostNL), Jordan Labrosse (Decathlon AG2R), Nicola Conci (XDS-Astana), Finn Fisher-Black (Red Bull–BORA-hansgrohe), and Andrea Bagioli (Lidl-Trek) will be more likely to wait for a reduced bunch sprint.

And finally, let’s not forget about some of the crafty veterans, always dangerous in these types of stages. Keep an eye on Wout Poels (XDS-Astana), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Michal Kwiatkowski (INEOS), and Victor Campenaerts (Visma | Lease a Bike) if they make it into the break!

Top favorites: Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) and Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech)
Outsiders: Orluis Aular (Movistar), Fabio Christen (Q36.5), Victor Langelotti (INEOS Grenadiers) and Marc Soler (UAE Emirates-XRG)
Long shots: Kevin Vermaerke (Picnic PostNL), Guillermo Thomas Silva (Caja Rural), Maximilian Schachmann (Soudal Quick-Step), Simon Carr (Cofidis), Stefan Küng, Thibaud Gruel (Groupama-FDJ), Jake Stewart (Israel-Premier Tech), Andrea Bagioli (Lidl-Trek), Javier Romo (Movistar), Michal Kwiatkowski (INEOS) and Victor Campenaerts (Visma | Lease a Bike)