Favorites stage 16 Giro d'Italia 2025 | And now you understand why the riders need a rest day on Monday

We start in Piazzola sul Brenta, where the road immediately begins to climb slightly. The riders must tackle 200 meters of elevation gain in the first forty kilometers. There are no steep gradients, but there are still percentages that will be visible on Garmin and Wahoo devices at the end of the day.

The first categorized climb is the Carbonare, which looms after 65 kilometers. At that point, the riders will have conquered 500 meters of elevation gain and must ride 12.9 kilometers at 4.6 percent to the top of the Carbonare. And from then on, there is hardly any flat terrain left in this monster stage.

The Carbonare is a second-category climb and actually serves as a warm-up for what is to come. From that climb, we descend straight to the next challenge: the Candrai. This col is 10.1 kilometers at 7.6 percent, including a steep finish. The average for the last three kilometers is over 8.5 percent, making this climb ideal for chaos.

After this climb, we descend to Vezzano, where the valley section of this stage awaits. This is a 10-kilometer stretch at 2.7 percent before heading towards the Santa Barbara climb. Santa Barbara may remind you of the sunny city in California, USA. Still, this time, it is a nasty Giro climb: 12.6 kilometers at 8.3 percent, a percentage close to Wednesday's San Pellegrino. Unpleasantly steep!

At the top of that climb, it is still 35 kilometers to the finish, the first sixteen kilometers of which are downhill towards the foot of San Valentino. That is the last mountain of the day, with variables of 18.2 kilometers at 6.1 percent. It should be noted that there are two descending sections, which means that the ascending kilometers must be steeper than the average to reach that 6.1 percent gradient.

The RCS has added an extra twist by placing the Red Bull kilometer in the middle of this climb, on top of the first seven kilometers at 6.7 percent. Part two of the col is six kilometers at 8.6 percent, while the final sections climb at an average of 8.9 percent. Tough, tougher, toughest!

Climbs
75.3 km: Carbonare (12.9 km a 4.6%)
114.9 km: Candriai (10.1 km a 7.6%)
168.4 km: Santa Barbara (12.7 km a 8.3%)
203.0 km: San Valentino (18.2 km a 6.1%)

Times
Start: 11:20 AM local time (05:20 AM EDT)
Finish: around 5:14 PM local time (10:14 AM EDT)

We are high up in the mountains, which often means tense moments in the Giro d'Italia. Temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees Celsius are expected for Tuesday, and precipitation is possible. That could be an additional factor in this grueling stage, where the wind will not play a significant role.

At this phase of the Giro d'Italia, there is no hiding in a tough stage like this, so we expect a battle between the GC contenders on Tuesday. That brings us back to the teams that have been in contention since the start of the race: the strong UAE Emirates-XRG and, of course, Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, which has Primoz Roglic in its ranks.

The Slovenian rider seems to have been focusing on these six days throughout the Giro, but he has to admit that he is at a disadvantage compared to the team from the Emirates. It also remains to be seen how Roglic will come out of the rest day, as he lost a minute and a half to almost all his opponents on Sunday. In any case, UAE has the extremely strong leader Isaac del Toro, intended team leader Juan Ayuso, and veteran Adam Yates. Also, it has the horsepower of Brandon McNulty, Jay Vine, Rafal Majka, Igor Arrieta, and Filippo Baroncini for support. On Wednesday, all eight were in group 25 on the San Pellegrino.

From the start of the race, these two camps have been fighting, but now, as we enter the final week, many others have managed to break away. Richard Carapaz has already won a stage and is riding high with his EF Education-EasyPost team, as is Simon Yates, the leader of the Visma | Lease a Bike team. And beware: we are talking about former Grand Tour winners who know how to perform in a tough third week.

The same goes for Egan Bernal of INEOS Grenadiers, who will have to think more about all-or-nothing attempts if he wants to be on the final podium. After San Pellegrino, INEOS was back on the offensive on Sunday on Monte Grappa. In addition, the Colombian is a man with stamina and is now entering his territory, where his team has already proven that they are not afraid to break open the race. Third-week specialist Thymen Arensman is, of course, also an essential factor in this.

So, who else has a chance? Derek Gee seems to be improving for Israel-Premier Tech. Tudor leader Michael Storer is entering his territory, which is undoubtedly true for climbing specialist Einer Rubio at Movistar. Bahrain Victorious still has the old fox Damiano Caruso; keep an eye on him and promising youngster Antonio Tiberi.

And what about the breakaway? For the GC contenders, where differences can be made, it looks like it will continue to be daunting. Nairo Quintana (Movistar) and Wout Poels (XDS-Astana, where they are also thinking about mountain king Lorenzo Fortunato) are men who will want to go for it. Further down the list are riders of the caliber of Wilco Kelderman (Visma | Lease a Bike), Pello Bilbao (UAE Emirates-XRG), Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla), and Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Wanty).

Top favorites: Juan Ayuso (UAE Emirates-XRG) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)
Outsiders: Isaac del Toro (UAE Emirates-XRG), Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers) and Simon Yates (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Long shots: Damiano Caruso, Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), Nairo Quintana, Einer Rubio (Movistar), Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers), Michael Storer (Tudor), Adam Yates (UAE Emirates-XRG), Wout Poels and Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS-Astana)